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MLB Stars Exceeding Expectations and Over/Under Predictions for 2025
10 months agoUS
As the 2025 MLB season approaches its final stretch, several players are defying expectations and setting remarkable paces. This article examines players exceeding projections and offers over/under predictions for key statistical milestones.
Key Insights
•
Cal Raleigh's Historic Season:: Raleigh is on track to break the single-season home run record for catchers, potentially reaching 61 home runs. He ultimately broke the record with 49 home runs on Sunday.
•
Kyle Schwarber vs. Shohei Ohtani:: Predictions favor Schwarber to win the National League home run title, potentially reaching 56-59 home runs, due to his strong performance against left-handed pitching.
•
Aaron Judge's WAR:: After a stellar start, Judge's WAR might land around 8.7-8.9 due to a recent cold streak and a flexor strain.
•
Nick Kurtz's Unexpected Rise:: Kurtz is a strong contender for AL Rookie of the Year, boasting an OPS above 1.000.
•
Tarik Skubal's Strikeout Pace:: Skubal is likely to reach 247 strikeouts, supported by his historical performance and the Tigers' potential playoff situation.
•
Freddy Peralta's Win Count:: Despite a strong season, Peralta is unlikely to reach 20 wins, with projections estimating 19 wins due to the Brewers' potential playoff clinch.
In-Depth Analysis
Players Exceeding Expectations
Several MLB players have significantly outperformed their projected fWAR (FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement), showcasing breakout seasons. ZiPS, a projection system by Dan Szymborski, compares projected fWAR to actual fWAR to identify these players.
Here are some notable players exceeding expectations:
1.
Kyle Stowers (OF, Marlins): Projected for 1.1 fWAR, Stowers has reached 4.0 fWAR with a significant increase in pulled airball rate.
2.
Geraldo Perdomo (SS, D-backs): Perdomo's improved hitting, line drive rate, and handling of breaking balls have led to a 5.0 fWAR, exceeding his projected 2.2.
3.
Nick Kurtz (1B, Athletics): With a projected 0.9 fWAR, Kurtz has exploded onto the scene with a 4.1 fWAR and an impressive 1.054 OPS.
4.
Jesús Luzardo (LHP, Phillies): Luzardo has been a surprise this season. He has 3.8 fWAR and 4.10 ERA compared to the projected 1.4 fWAR and 4.45 ERA. Luzardo has been a different guy in 2025, thanks in large part to a brand new strikeout pitch -- a sweeper against which opponents have a 44.6% whiff rate.
5.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, Cubs): Crow-Armstrong has surpassed expectations with a 5.4 fWAR, driven by a power surge and improved defense.
6.
Kyle Schwarber (DH, Phillies): At 32, Schwarber combines power and average, resulting in a 4.2 fWAR, significantly higher than his projected 2.2.
7.
Cal Raleigh (C, Mariners): Raleigh's exceptional offensive season has led to a 7.1 fWAR, exceeding his projected 5.1.
8.
Maikel Garcia (INF, Royals): Garcia's improved batting average and on-base percentage have resulted in a 4.4 fWAR, compared to his projected 2.6.
9.
Hunter Brown (RHP, Astros): Brown's strong second half has propelled him to a 4.2 fWAR, exceeding his projected 2.4.
10.
Zach McKinstry (INF/OF, Tigers): McKinstry is one of several utility players on the roster who can easily get into 100 games even without a significant injury to a starter. His 2025 projections (.237/.305/.374, 8 HR, 13 SB) likely would have constituted his best offensive season -- his actual 2025 season definitely is.
FAQs
Is Cal Raleigh having the best season by a catcher ever?
Cal Raleigh is almost certainly going to become the first primary catcher to hit 50 home runs in a season, which could very well be followed by him taking over the record for the highest single-season home run total as a catcher , currently held by Javy Lopez (42 in 2003).
Who is favored to win the NL home run title?
Kyle Schwarber is favored to win, potentially reaching 56-59 home runs.
What is ZiPS?
ZiPS is the projection system created by FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski, to compare every player's projected fWAR to their actual fWAR.
Key Takeaways
•
Several MLB players are exceeding expectations, making the 2025 season one to remember.
•
Key players to watch include Cal Raleigh, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Kurtz.
•
Over/under predictions provide insights into potential statistical milestones for star players.
Discussion
Do you think these players will maintain their current performance levels? Share this article with others who need to stay ahead of this trend!
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