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2026 Heisman Trophy Race: Early Frontrunners and Potential Dark Horses
about 1 month agoUS
The 2026 college football season promises a thrilling Heisman Trophy race, with several returning stars and emerging talents vying for the coveted award. With the departure of last year's winner, Fernando Mendoza, to the NFL, the field is wide open for new contenders to emerge and lead their teams to national prominence. This article breaks down the early favorites and potential dark horses in the Heisman race, offering insights into their strengths, weaknesses, and the factors that could influence their chances.
Key Insights
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CJ Carr (Notre Dame):: The current favorite with +750 odds, Carr finished the 2025 season strong, leading the Fighting Irish to a 10-game winning streak. If he can maintain that level of performance, he could be the nation's best quarterback. Why this matters: Carr's consistency will be key for Notre Dame's CFP aspirations.
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Arch Manning (Texas):: With +800 odds, Manning is expected to be a top contender after a strong finish to 2025. Leading a team with national championship expectations, Manning has the opportunity to solidify his place among college football's elite. Why this matters: Manning's performance will be crucial for Texas's quest for a national title.
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Dante Moore (Oregon):: Moore, with +1200 odds, opted to return to Oregon after speculation he would be a top NFL Draft pick. His impressive sophomore year sets high expectations for his final season with the Ducks. Why this matters: Moore's decision to return boosts Oregon's chances for a deep playoff run.
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Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State):: The top receiver is poised to have a dominant season. The NFL-bound Smith is expected to run rampant for the Buckeyes. Heisman could be next. Why this matters: Smith's potential Heisman win could follow in the footsteps of Devonta Smith.
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Trinidad Chambliss (Ole Miss):: Chambliss (+1100) took over as starting QB due to injury, led the Rebels to their first-ever CFP appearance after Lane Kiffin's departure. The transfer has all the tools to help the Rebels reach another CFP. Why this matters: Chambliss is looking to continue his sensational play this season.
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Josh Hoover (Indiana):: Hoover (+1200) is looking to make an impact in his final season of eligibility. Hoover looks to follow Mendoza's success in leading Indiana. Why this matters: Hoover can become Indiana's second Heisman winner following Mendoza.
In-Depth Analysis
The 2026 Heisman Trophy race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. Several quarterbacks from top-25 teams are considered early favorites, but a few dark horses could emerge as the season progresses.
Quarterback Dominance:
As usual, quarterbacks dominate the list of potential Heisman candidates. CJ Carr, Arch Manning, and Dante Moore are among the most talked-about quarterbacks heading into the season. Carr's consistency, Manning's high expectations, and Moore's decision to return to college make them strong contenders.
Impact of Transfers:
The transfer portal has played a significant role in shaping the Heisman landscape. Josh Hoover's move to Indiana and Sam Leavitt's transfer to LSU highlight the potential impact of new quarterbacks in new environments. Darian Mensah is also looking to be an impact transfer for Miami.
Dark Horse Candidates:
While quarterbacks typically dominate the Heisman conversation, several running backs and wide receivers could emerge as dark horse candidates. Cam Dickey (Texas Tech) posted 1,124 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns while splitting carries, and will take on an even bigger role if the passing game is slow to develop. Ahmad Hardy (Missouri) blew his ULM freshman numbers out of the water, exploding for 1,649 yards and 16 touchdowns on only 256 carries.
Factors to Watch:
Several factors could influence the Heisman race as the season progresses:
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Team Success: Heisman winners typically lead their teams to significant success, such as a conference championship or a College Football Playoff berth.
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Statistical Performance: Individual statistics, particularly passing yards, passing touchdowns, and rushing yards, play a crucial role in Heisman voting.
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National Attention: Players who generate national buzz and attention throughout the season often have an advantage in the Heisman race.
FAQs
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Q: Who is the early favorite to win the Heisman Trophy in 2026?
CJ Carr, the quarterback from Notre Dame, is currently the favorite with +750 odds.
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Q: Which non-quarterbacks could contend for the Heisman Trophy?
Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) and Cam Dickey (Texas Tech) are potential candidates.
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Q: How have transfers impacted the Heisman race?
Transfers like Josh Hoover (Indiana) and Sam Leavitt (LSU) could significantly impact their teams' success and their own Heisman chances.
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Q: What factors will influence the Heisman race?
Team success, individual statistics, and national attention all play a crucial role in determining the Heisman winner.
Key Takeaways
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The quarterback position remains king:: While other positions have a chance, quarterbacks from top teams are still the most likely to win the Heisman.
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Team success is crucial:: Players on teams competing for conference championships and playoff spots have a significant advantage.
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Keep an eye on transfers:: The transfer portal can quickly reshape the Heisman landscape, so pay attention to how new quarterbacks perform in their new environments.
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Don't overlook dark horses:: Running backs and wide receivers can emerge as contenders if they produce exceptional statistics and generate national attention.
Discussion
Who do you think will win the Heisman Trophy in 2026? Are there any dark horse candidates that you think could surprise everyone? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
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