The government shutdown led to delays in reports tracking inflation, employment, and economic growth.
Several reports have been rescheduled, while some have been consolidated or canceled.
The BEA will estimate October’s PCE inflation by using September and November CPI data as a stand-in due to gaps in October’s CPI.
Delayed data can blur the outlook for inflation, jobs, and growth, complicating economic decisions.
Backfilled inflation data can still move market expectations, but introduces uncertainty.
The shutdown resulted in a backlog of economic reports, forcing agencies to adjust their release schedules. Key reports affected include:
Trade Deficit:: October data released January 8.
Housing Starts:: September and October data released January 9.
New Home Sales:: October and September data released January 13.
Business Inventories:: October data released January 14.
Retail Sales:: November data released January 14.
Producer Price Index (PPI):: November data released January 14, with a subset of the October report.
Import and Export Price Indexes:: November data released January 15, with a subset of the October report.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP):: Q3 final update released January 22.
Durable-Goods Orders:: November data released January 26.
December PPI:: Released January 30.
Employment Cost Index:: Q4 data released February 10.
Import and Export Price Indexes:: December data released February 10.
Some reports, including advanced reports on trade deficit, wholesale inventories, retail inventories, and the Q4 GDP advance estimate, have been canceled. The BEA’s method of averaging CPI data to estimate PCE inflation introduces a blend of observation and estimation.
Q: Why are these data delays important?
Delayed economic reports can blur the outlook for inflation, jobs, and growth, complicating decisions for investors, businesses, and policymakers.
Q: What is the PCE Price Index?
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Q: How is the BEA handling the missing CPI data?
The BEA will average September and November CPI components to estimate October’s PCE inflation.
Stay informed about the revised release dates for key economic reports.
Understand that backfilled inflation data can still influence market expectations, but introduces a degree of uncertainty.
Be aware that some economic reports have been canceled altogether.
The method of estimating PCE introduces a blend of observation and estimation.
Do you think these data delays will have a lasting impact on economic forecasting? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
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