2024 Recap:: Holliday dominated the minors in 2023 but struggled in his first MLB taste in 2024, posting a 63 wRC+ and striking out over 33% of the time.
2025 Draft Cost:: His Average Draft Position (ADP) was around 199 (16th round in 12-team leagues), reflecting the risk despite his prospect pedigree.
Early 2025 Stats (as of mid-April):: In 48 plate appearances, Holliday hit .213/.229/.340 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 SB, and a 63 wRC+.
Underlying Improvements:: Despite poor surface stats, Holliday shows better plate discipline: swinging less at pitches outside the zone (21.3% vs 26.1% in 2024) and making more contact on pitches inside the zone (88.7% vs 80.8%).
Concerning Sign:: His walk rate is surprisingly low (2.1%) despite improved swing decisions.
Why this matters:: Fantasy managers invested a mid-to-late round pick hoping for upside. While the early results mirror 2024's struggles, subtle improvements in approach offer a glimmer of hope, making him a hold rather than an immediate drop in many formats.
While Jackson Holliday's early 2025 performance hasn't wowed fantasy managers (ranking as the 37th-best second baseman vs. being drafted 18th at the position), a closer look reveals encouraging signs. His pitch recognition appears to be improving, demonstrated by a lower out-of-zone swing rate and increased zone contact rate. This suggests he's seeing the ball better at the Major League level.
However, this improved approach hasn't translated into walks or significantly better results yet. His average exit velocity (90.3 mph) is league average, but below-average bat speed limits his hard-hit rate and power potential; expecting more than 20 home runs seems unlikely.
The Orioles appear committed to letting Holliday develop, keeping him in the lineup regularly, often batting eighth and playing second base. His defense also helps secure his playing time. For fantasy managers, especially in redraft leagues, the path to Holliday returning value hinges significantly on his speed. His sprint speed ranks in the top 8% of MLB players. If he can get on base more consistently and the Orioles allow him to run aggressively, he possesses the potential for 30+ stolen bases, which could offset a modest batting average (projected around .230-.260). Dynasty league managers can afford more patience, but redraft owners need those steals to materialize sooner rather than later.
Is Jackson Holliday performing up to his draft expectations in 2025?
No, through mid-April 2025, his surface stats (.213 AVG, 1 HR, 63 wRC+) are poor, ranking him significantly lower (2B37) than his Average Draft Position (2B18).
Should fantasy managers drop Jackson Holliday?
In deeper leagues (12+ teams), it's generally recommended to hold him for now. His underlying metrics show some promise, and the Orioles are giving him playing time. In shallower leagues (8-10 teams), where waiver wires are richer, dropping him might be considered if better options are clearly available.
What is Holliday's main path to fantasy value this season?
His elite speed offers significant stolen base potential. If he can leverage this tool by getting on base more consistently, he could provide substantial value in that category, potentially outperforming his draft cost even with average hitting stats.
Holliday's early 2025 stats are disappointing but somewhat expected given his 2024 struggles and draft position.
Key takeaway: Watch his plate discipline metrics (especially walk rate) and stolen base attempts.
Underlying swing improvements suggest potential for better results as the season progresses.
Stolen bases are his most likely route to providing significant fantasy value in 2025.
Patience is advised in deeper leagues; shallower leagues offer more flexibility.
Are you holding onto Jackson Holliday in your fantasy leagues, or have the early struggles made you cut bait? Do you think he'll start running more soon?
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