Fantasy Baseball: Sell High Candidates for May 2025
Key Insights
Carson Kelly:: Despite leading the league in wOBA, his career suggests this performance is unsustainable. Why this matters: Trading him now can yield a significant return.
Jorge Polanco:: A new swing has boosted his performance, but his value is likely inflated. Why this matters: Capitalize on his current high value before his performance regresses.
Pavin Smith:: Primarily effective against righties, his high BABIP indicates an impending decline. Why this matters: Selling now can prevent a loss in value.
Trent Grisham:: Focused on pulling the ball, his HR/FB rate is unlikely to persist. Why this matters: Trade him to Yankees fans who overvalue his current form.
Ben Rice:: Crushing fastballs against righties, his performance is likely to regress as pitchers adjust. Why this matters: Use him as trade bait while his value is high.
In-Depth Analysis
The fantasy baseball season is in full swing, and smart managers are always looking for ways to improve their teams. One strategy is to identify players who are currently overperforming and trade them for players who may have more long-term value. Several players are prime candidates to sell high in early May 2025.
Carson Kelly has been the best hitter in baseball this year by wOBA, but his career numbers suggest that this is unsustainable.
Jorge Polanco has changed his swing and is playing out of his mind. Even his expected stats back up his performance. No, he’s not going to keep this up, but Polanco is a good hitter, and his new, shorter swing is helping him make the most of his abilities.
Pavin Smith's production against righties is legit, he doesn’t play against lefties, and if someone wants to pay for something close to this version of him, then go for it. A .488 BABIP is propping him up, so the fall is going to be steeper than Polanco’s.
Pete Alonso has earned his ridiculous start — he’s actually underperformed his .700 xSLG. He’s been better at laying off pitches low and away this year, and his K, BB, and barrel rates all back up what he’s doing. Still, this is peak “Polar Bear,” and if someone wants to pay like he’s a top-10 player, go for it. He has simply never been close to this over a full season, and regression will come eventually.
Trent Grisham has turned his focus a little lower in the zone, looking to pull everything he can over the short porch in right field. It’s been working, to the tune of an HR/FB rate over 30%. The K% is down significantly, and his average is up about .100 points. He has mostly earned this, but he will cool off, and pitchers will find successful approaches.
Ben Rice is an amalgam of Polanco and Grisham — a Yankee who is crushing righties and running a 35% HR/FB, and backing up the performance with his expected stats. To put that figure in context, Judge had the highest HR/FB rate last year at 32.2%, and Shohei Ohtani was second at 28%.
FAQs
Q: What is wOBA?
Weighted On-Base Average, a comprehensive hitting statistic that values different offensive outcomes.
Q: What is BABIP?
Batting Average on Balls in Play, measuring a player's batting average on balls put in play, excluding home runs.
Key Takeaways
Identify overperforming players on your roster. Analyze their underlying statistics to determine sustainability. Proactively offer these players in trades to acquire assets with more long-term value. Don't get caught holding the bag when regression hits!
Discussion
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