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Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock Performance During Market Shocks
2 months agoUS
Understanding how Exxon Mobil (XOM) performs during market shocks is crucial for investors. This article examines XOM's behavior during past crises, providing insights into potential drawdowns and strategies for managing risk.
Key Insights
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During 15 major systemic shocks, XOM stock averaged a -15% drawdown, compared to -16% for the S&P 500.
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XOM experienced a -48% drawdown during the 2020 COVID-19 crash, while the S&P 500 fell by -34%.
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In the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, XOM saw a -33% drawdown compared to -53% for the S&P 500.
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During the 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis, XOM's drawdown was -20%, while the S&P 500 experienced -18%.
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Recent estimates suggest Exxon Mobil (XOM) may continue its streak of beating earnings estimates, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).
In-Depth Analysis
Exxon Mobil's stock performance during market shocks reveals its resilience and vulnerability. Analyzing historical drawdowns provides a framework for investors to assess risk and make informed decisions.
Past Market Shock Drawdowns Summarized For XOM
| Shock Event | S&P | Bonds | Sector | Stock |
| :------------------------------------------------ | :------ | :------ | :------ | :------ |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | -8.6% | None | -11% | -9.6% |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | -53% | None | -52% | -33% |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | -15% | None | -20% | -18% |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | -18% | -1.1% | -29% | -20% |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | -0.2% | -17% | None | -1.3% |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | -6.8% | -5.0% | -45% | -29% |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | -12% | -4.4% | -24% | -13% |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | -3.7% | -15% | -6.7% | -6.0% |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | -19% | -2.2% | -30% | -23% |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | -34% | -0.7% | -56% | -48% |
| 2022 Fed Tightening Inflation Bear Market | -24% | -35% | None | None |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | -6.7% | -4.3% | -14% | -15% |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | -9.5% | -17% | -5.0% | -5.6% |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | -7.8% | -1.2% | -3.3% | None |
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | -19% | -3.8% | -16% | -9.4% |
Recent estimates suggest Exxon Mobil (XOM) may continue its streak of beating earnings estimates. The Zacks Earnings ESP for the company is positive, suggesting analysts are bullish on its near-term earnings potential.
FAQs
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Q: How does XOM typically perform during market crashes?
XOM's stock has shown an average drawdown of -15% during major systemic shocks, which is comparable to the S&P 500's average decline of -16%.
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Q: What was XOM's largest drawdown during a recent crisis?
During the COVID-19 crash in 2020, XOM experienced a significant drawdown of -48%.
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Q: What is Earnings ESP?
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter, indicating the potential for an earnings surprise.
Key Takeaways
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XOM's historical performance during market shocks provides a valuable reference for investors.
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Understanding potential drawdowns can help in sizing positions and managing risk.
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Recent estimates suggest Exxon Mobil (XOM) may continue its streak of beating earnings estimates, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).
Discussion
Do you think XOM's historical performance is a reliable indicator of future behavior? Share this article with others who need to stay ahead of this trend!
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