Geopolitical conflicts tend to have a limited, short-term impact on the stock market. The S&P 500 typically recovers within three months after major geopolitical shocks.
Gold prices are expected to rise further due to the conflict, potentially reaching all-time highs. Investors are advised to consider gold as a safe-haven asset.
The outlook for energy stocks is uncertain, with potential for both significant gains and losses depending on the duration and severity of the conflict. A prolonged disruption could lead to a spike in oil prices.
Defense stocks initially benefited from the conflict, but their long-term outlook is less certain. An extended conflict could negatively impact the perceived value of military spending.
Monday's trading action demonstrated the stock market's tendency to price in worst-case scenarios early on and then recover. Bank of America Securities notes that the S&P 500 has historically lost more than 8% during geopolitical shocks but fully recovers within three months. The current conflict's impact hinges on its duration and the extent of disruption to oil passage in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has reportedly closed.
Gold: According to Jan Stuart at Piper Sandler, gold is likely to receive another boost from the conflict. CLSA's Laurence Balanco suggests viewing any price surge as a cyclical upswing within an ongoing consolidation, supporting a longer-term uptrend.
Energy Stocks: The energy sector, which has already surged more than 26% in 2026, faces a complicated outlook. Francisco Blanch at Bank of America suggests that a quick resolution could see oil prices dropping to $60-$70 per barrel, while attacks on regional energy facilities could push Brent prices above $100. A prolonged disruption could lead to a $40-$80 per barrel spike. Chevron and Exxon Mobil saw gains on Monday.
Defense Stocks: Deutsche Bank Research suggests that a drawn-out conflict could negatively impact the defense sector's outlook, potentially de-legitimizing the use of force and creating political risk.
Q: How long do geopolitical conflicts typically affect the stock market?
Historically, the S&P 500 recovers within three months after major geopolitical shocks.
Q: What is the outlook for oil prices amid the U.S.-Iran war?
Oil prices could either drop back to $60-$70 per barrel with a quick resolution or spike significantly if the conflict prolongs and disrupts energy facilities.
The U.S.-Iran war presents both risks and opportunities for investors. Monitoring the conflict's duration and its impact on key sectors like energy and defense is crucial. Gold remains a viable safe-haven asset. Traders should be prepared for volatility and consider both short-term and long-term implications.
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