Trump's Nuclear Arms Control Push Hinges on China

The expiration of the New START treaty marks the first time in the 21st century that the US and Russia lack major restrictions on their nuclear weapons programs. Trump's push for a trilateral agreement involving China adds complexity, given China's reluctance and existing tensions. The absence of verification measures in any potential stopgap agreement raises concerns about transparency.

Historically, arms control treaties between the US and Russia have taken years to negotiate, establishing compliance and verification rules. The current geopolitical climate, strained by the conflict in Ukraine, further complicates the path towards a new agreement.

The US and Russia have significant disagreements on how to replace New Start. The previous deal limited deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 for each country and included on-site inspections and data sharing. Russia suspended the treaty in 2023, citing US support for Ukraine.

It removes key restrictions on US and Russian nuclear weapons programs for the first time in the 21st century, raising concerns about a potential arms race.

China's reluctance to join talks unless the US and Russia reduce their arsenals, tensions over the war in Ukraine, and disagreements between the US and Russia on treaty terms.

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