Ossoff Leads by 13 Points: The poll shows Ossoff at 56% vs. Collins at 43% among Georgia registered voters.
Strong Party Loyalty for Ossoff: Nearly all Democrats (96%) support the incumbent, while only 89% of Republicans back Collins.
Independents Favor Ossoff: The Democrat leads among independents by 68%, a crucial swing group.
Inflation Is the Top Issue: 40% of voters say inflation will be the most important factor in their Senate vote — and Ossoff leads by 21 points among those voters.
Favorability Gap: Ossoff enjoys a 58% favorability rating, while Collins sits at 44% and Trump at 42%.
Ticket-Splitting in the Governor's Race: Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms leads Republican Rick Jackson 52% to 47% in the gubernatorial contest, with some cross-party voting occurring.
Why This Matters: The poll signals that even in a traditionally competitive state like Georgia, the Democratic incumbent is consolidating key coalitions while Collins struggles to expand beyond his core base. With inflation dominating voter concerns, candidates' economic messaging will be critical in the months ahead.
Jon Ossoff first won his Senate seat in a January 2021 runoff, defeating Republican David Perdue by just over one percentage point. Since then, Georgia has remained a fiercely contested battleground. Donald Trump carried the state by about 2 points in 2024 after losing it by less than a point in 2020 and winning it by more than 5 points in 2016.
Collins secured the GOP nomination after a last-minute endorsement from President Trump in the June primary runoff, defeating Derek Dooley, who was backed by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp.
Ossoff's coalition reflects a broad base: he leads among Black voters (87%), voters under 30 (68%), women under 45 (66%), moderates (66%), and independents (68%). Collins performs best with White evangelical Christians (79%), White men without a college degree (65%), and rural voters (55%). Around half of gun-owner households (53%) and veterans (50%) also back him.
A notable finding: 24% of non-MAGA Republicans say they will vote for Ossoff, compared to just 4% of MAGA supporters crossing over to the Democrat.
While both candidates' supporters show solid motivation to vote, Ossoff enjoys a slight edge in certainty. Over 8 in 10 Ossoff supporters say their vote is for him rather than against Collins. For Collins, only 56% say their vote is actively for him — a sign that many Republicans may be holding their noses.
The poll also examined the governor's race, where Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms leads Republican Rick Jackson 52% to 47% — within the margin of error. Some 11% of Ossoff supporters plan to back Jackson, while 5% of Collins supporters back Bottoms, indicating meaningful ticket-splitting.
Comparing to the 2021 runoff, Ossoff is matching his previous numbers among key demographics, while Collins is underperforming relative to Perdue's 2021 showing. This suggests the GOP nominee has ground to make up.
Pollster Daron Shaw (Republican) noted: "Ossoff is 'sitting in the Catbird seat.' My hunch is the race will become much more competitive, but Collins has work to do convincing Republicans and independents that he and the president can make things more affordable for rank-and-file Georgians."
When was the poll conducted?
The Fox News Poll was conducted June 23–27, 2026, among 1,002 randomly selected Georgia registered voters. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
What issues matter most to Georgia voters?
Inflation dominates at 40%, followed by healthcare (13%), political divisions (11%), immigration (11%), and jobs/unemployment (11%). The Iran conflict (5%), crime (5%), and abortion (3%) trail behind.
How does Collins perform among his own party?
89% of Republicans back Collins, but only 56% of his supporters say their vote is for him — 44% say it is primarily a vote *against* Ossoff.
What is the status of the Georgia governor's race?
Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms leads Republican Rick Jackson 52% to 47%, within the margin of error. Both candidates have net-positive favorability ratings.
How does Ossoff's current performance compare to his 2021 runoff win?
Ossoff is matching his 2021 numbers among key demographic groups, while Collins is underperforming relative to David Perdue's 2021 showing.
For Georgia Voters: Pay close attention to how candidates address inflation and economic concerns — these are the top issues driving the race.
For Political Observers: The high rate of ticket-splitting (11% of Ossoff voters backing the GOP governor candidate) shows Georgia remains a complex political landscape where voters don't always vote a straight party line.
For Collins Supporters: The candidate needs to expand his appeal beyond his base of White evangelical Christians and rural voters, especially among independents and moderates.
Key Insight: With 53% of voters concerned Collins is too close to Trump and 47% worried Ossoff is too liberal, messaging around independence versus alignment will be crucial in the final months of the campaign.
Georgia's Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 election cycle. With inflation dominating the conversation and significant ticket-splitting already visible, the dynamics could shift dramatically before Election Day.
Do you think Mike Collins can close the gap, or will Ossoff hold onto his double-digit lead? Let us know!
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