Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the Unraveling of Pretoria: Crisis in the Horn of Africa

Why this matters: The unraveling of the Pretoria Agreement threatens to plunge the Horn of Africa into renewed conflict, impacting regional stability and humanitarian efforts.

The Pretoria Peace Agreement, intended to bring stability to the region after a brutal war, is faltering. Key issues such as the disarmament of Tigrayan forces, withdrawal of Eritrean troops, and resolution of contested territories remain unresolved. The National Election Board of Ethiopia’s revocation of the TPLF’s legal status further deepens political rifts. Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea are rising, fueled by Ethiopia’s ambition to secure access to the Red Sea, a move seen as a direct challenge by Asmara. This has led to both nations hedging against each other, with allegations of support for opposition groups and internal factions. The internal fragmentation within Tigray, marked by disputes and power struggles, further complicates the situation. The emergence of new political entities and the shifting alliances exacerbate the risk of renewed conflict. The involvement of external actors, such as the UAE and Egypt, adds another layer of complexity to the regional dynamics, increasing the potential for proxy conflicts.

The Pretoria Agreement is a peace accord signed in November 2022 between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to end the war in and around Tigray.

Tensions are escalating due to unresolved territorial disputes, Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions, and allegations of interference in each other’s internal affairs.

The TPLF is the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, a political party that dominated Tigray for decades. It is fragmenting due to internal disputes over leadership, strategic orientation, and allegations of corruption.

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