Union Slips, AfD Surges:: The CDU/CSU bloc has dropped to around 26% in recent polls (YouGov, Forsa/RTL/ntv), down from their 28.5% election result. The AfD is polling strongly at 23-24%, significantly higher than their 20.8% election result, narrowing the gap with the Union to just 2-3 percentage points.
Merz's Approval Declines:: Public perception of CDU leader Friedrich Merz's suitability as Chancellor has fallen. Only 32% (YouGov) now consider him suitable, a 10-point drop since February. Doubts are also growing among Union supporters.
Coalition Skepticism:: There's limited public enthusiasm for the ongoing coalition negotiations between the Union (CDU/CSU) and the SPD. 30% (YouGov) believe such a coalition would worsen their living conditions, and only 9% think it could solve Germany's major problems.
Other Parties:: The SPD polls around 15%, slightly below their election result. The Greens hold steady at 12%. The Left party gains slightly or holds at 10%. The BSW hovers around 4-5%, while the FDP remains weak at 3%.
Why this matters:: The narrowing gap between the traditional centre-right Union and the right-wing AfD, coupled with doubts about Merz and the potential coalition, signals increasing political fragmentation and potential instability in Germany. This could complicate governance and policy-making.
Recent polling data from YouGov (March 21-24) and Forsa for RTL/ntv (March 18-24) paints a picture of a volatile German electorate shortly after the federal election.
Shifting Party Fortunes:
The headline trend is the narrowing gap between the CDU/CSU Union and the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). YouGov places the Union at 26% and the AfD at 24%, a mere 2-point difference. Forsa shows a similar trend, with the Union at 26% and the AfD at 23% (a 3-point gap), an all-time high for the party in that poll.
Both polls show the Social Democrats (SPD) slightly below their election performance at 15%. The Greens remain stable around 12%, while The Left (Die Linke) performs slightly better than their election result, polling at 10%. The Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) polls at 4-5%, near the electoral threshold, and the Free Democrats (FDP) languish at 3%, well below the 5% needed for parliamentary representation.
Doubts Surround Merz and Coalition:
A significant factor appears to be declining confidence in CDU leader Friedrich Merz. His approval ratings regarding suitability for the Chancellorship have dropped noticeably since the election, even among his own party's supporters. Some analysis suggests this dip coincides with the Union's decision, alongside the SPD and Greens, to approve a large credit package, potentially seen as breaking election promises regarding the debt brake ('Schuldenbremse').
Furthermore, the public expresses considerable skepticism towards the ongoing coalition talks between the Union and SPD. A large portion of the electorate (49% YouGov) expects no improvement in their living conditions from such a government, while 30% actively fear a decline. Trust in this potential coalition's ability to solve Germany's problems is very low (9% YouGov).
COVID-19 Retrospective:
The YouGov poll also touched upon public reflection on Germany's COVID-19 policies. A slight majority (53%) remains dissatisfied retrospectively. Measures like school closures and visitor bans in hospitals/care homes are viewed particularly negatively, while mask mandates and distancing rules face less criticism.
What are the latest German political poll numbers?
Recent polls (late March 2025) show the CDU/CSU Union around 26%, closely followed by the AfD at 23-24%. The SPD is at 15%, Greens at 12%, The Left at 10%, BSW at 4-5%, and FDP at 3%.
How has support for Friedrich Merz changed?
Support for Friedrich Merz as a suitable Chancellor has declined significantly since the election. Only about a third of voters (32% in YouGov poll) currently see him as suitable, down 10 points from February.
How do Germans view a potential CDU/CSU-SPD coalition?
There is widespread skepticism. Only 9% believe it would improve their lives or solve major problems, while 30% fear it would worsen their conditions. Nearly half expect no significant change.
Germany's political landscape remains highly fluid after the recent election.
The traditional centre-right Union faces a strong challenge from the right-wing AfD.
Public confidence in potential Chancellor Friedrich Merz and a potential 'Grand Coalition' with the SPD is low.
This uncertainty could lead to challenges in forming a stable government and implementing policy.
Do you think the Union can regain ground, or will the AfD continue to challenge for the top spot? Let us know!
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