The peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, finalized in March 2025, faces significant challenges despite initial optimism.
Key sticking points include Azerbaijan's demands for constitutional changes in Armenia and control over the Zangezur Corridor.
Ceasefire violations and military build-up on both sides are escalating tensions, undermining trust.
Geopolitical maneuvering by Russia, the EU, and the US adds complexity to the peace process.
Domestic opposition in Armenia and Azerbaijan further complicates the path to lasting peace.
Why This Matters: A breakdown in the peace process could lead to renewed conflict, destabilizing the South Caucasus region and impacting international energy routes and alliances.
For over three decades, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a bitter conflict, primarily over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Despite a draft peace treaty, escalating tensions, mutual distrust, and unresolved issues threaten to derail the peace process.
#### The Zangezur Corridor
A proposed land route connecting Azerbaijan’s mainland to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory. Azerbaijan initially demanded extraterritorial rights, which Armenia rejected as a violation of its territorial integrity.
#### Constitutional Demands
Azerbaijan demands that Armenia amend its constitution’s preamble, which references a 1990 Declaration of Independence that includes a call for the unification of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, viewed by Baku as a latent territorial claim.
#### Escalating Tensions
Since March 13, both sides have reported over 30 ceasefire violations. Azerbaijan accuses Armenia of breaches, while Armenia alleges attacks, including the shelling of a cultural center.
The peace process is complicated by geopolitical dynamics, with Russia, the EU, and the United States vying for influence. Russia’s regional leverage has waned due to its focus on Ukraine and Armenia’s pivot to the West.
Pashinyan’s peace agenda faces domestic and diaspora opposition. Critics argue that his concessions undermine Armenia’s sovereignty and historical claims.
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Understand the historical context of the conflict to better grasp the current challenges.
Support diplomatic efforts aimed at fostering dialogue and de-escalation.
Residents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, who face the risk of renewed conflict.
Businesses and investors in the region, who could be impacted by instability.
International actors with strategic interests in the South Caucasus.
Q: What is the Zangezur Corridor?
The Zangezur Corridor is a proposed land route connecting Azerbaijan’s mainland to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory.
Q: Why is Azerbaijan demanding constitutional changes in Armenia?
Azerbaijan views references to Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia's constitution as a latent territorial claim.
Q: What is the role of external powers in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict?
Russia, the EU, and the US are all vying for influence in the region, adding complexity to the peace process.
The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal is at a critical juncture, with significant hurdles remaining.
Key issues include the Zangezur Corridor, constitutional amendments, and ceasefire violations.
Geopolitical rivalries and domestic pressures further cloud the outlook.
Sustained international pressure is needed to ensure that this fragile opportunity for peace does not slip away.
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