Peace Treaty Progress:: Both Armenia and Azerbaijan confirmed reaching an agreement on the text of a peace treaty in mid-March 2025. Steinmeier urged both sides to seize the moment and proceed with signing and ratification.
Armenia's Position:: Yerevan appears ready to sign the treaty and is pursuing closer ties with the European Union, distancing itself from its traditional ally Russia after Moscow did not prevent Azerbaijan's offensive in Nagorno-Karabach. Armenia has 'frozen' its membership in the Russia-led CSTO military alliance.
Azerbaijan's Conditions:: Baku, victorious in the recent conflict, has set conditions for finalizing the peace deal. President Ilham Aliyev demands the formal dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group (the former mediation format) and amendments to Armenia's constitution, which references Karabakh based on its declaration of independence.
Geopolitical Significance:: Azerbaijan's role as an energy supplier to Europe (especially gas via the Southern Gas Corridor) has grown since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The country is positioning itself as a middle power and a key link in the 'Middle Corridor' transport route between Europe and Asia.
German/EU Role:: Steinmeier engaged in shuttle diplomacy, leveraging his past experience as Foreign Minister. Germany supports Armenia's EU aspirations and reform efforts. An unarmed EU monitoring mission (EUMA) is present in Armenia along the border, though its future is debated.
President Steinmeier's visit to the South Caucasus involved high-level talks in both Yerevan and Baku. Leveraging personal connections from his time as Foreign Minister, Steinmeier aimed to foster dialogue and encourage concrete steps towards peace. While acknowledging the predominantly representative nature of his office, the visit functioned as informal shuttle diplomacy in a tense post-conflict environment. Steinmeier emphasized the need for reconciliation between the people of Armenia and Azerbaijan as crucial for long-term stability.
Armenia faces significant challenges, with most of its borders (with Azerbaijan and Turkey) closed. The government under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has made 'courageous decisions' to reorient towards the West, particularly the EU. This shift stems from disappointment with Russia's security guarantees regarding Nagorno-Karabakh. While the path to closer EU integration requires substantial reforms, Germany has pledged ongoing support.
As the victor in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan, under President Aliyev, negotiates from a position of strength. Beyond the specific conditions for the peace treaty, Baku is capitalizing on its strategic importance. It serves as a vital alternative energy source for Europe, mitigating reliance on Russian gas. German companies like Uniper have agreements for Azerbaijani gas deliveries. Furthermore, Azerbaijan is investing in renewable energy for future electricity exports and enhancing its role as a transit hub via the 'Middle Corridor'. Aliyev's government presents Azerbaijan as an emerging middle power, seeking influence on the global stage.
Despite progress on the treaty text, significant hurdles remain. Baku's demands regarding the OSCE Minsk Group and Armenia's constitution are major sticking points. Deep-seated mistrust persists after decades of conflict. The EU monitoring mission in Armenia, requested by Yerevan but viewed critically by Baku and Moscow, faces an uncertain future post-treaty. While officials like the EUMA head Markus Ritter state the parties have 'never been closer' to a deal, Steinmeier realistically framed peace as a 'generational task', urging both sides not to 'lose time'. The stability of the region is crucial, not only for the Caucasus but also for European energy security and trade routes.
Has a peace treaty been signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
No, not yet. While the text was reportedly agreed upon in mid-March 2025, Azerbaijan has set conditions that need to be met before signing.
What are Azerbaijan's main conditions for peace?
President Aliyev demands the formal dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group and changes to Armenia's constitution removing references to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Why is Armenia seeking closer ties with the EU?
Armenia feels its traditional security partner, Russia, failed to protect its interests in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, prompting a strategic reorientation towards the West.
What is Germany's role in the peace process?
German President Steinmeier is acting as a mediator, encouraging dialogue and the finalization of the peace treaty. Germany also supports Armenia's reform path towards the EU.
Regional Stability is Fragile:: The situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains tense despite progress on a peace deal. A final agreement is crucial for long-term stability in the South Caucasus.
Energy Security Implications:: Azerbaijan's role as an energy supplier to Europe highlights the geopolitical importance of the region for European consumers and diversification efforts away from Russian resources.
Geopolitical Realignments:: Armenia's shift towards the EU signifies changing dynamics in the post-Soviet space, influenced by the war in Ukraine and perceived unreliability of traditional alliances.
Diplomacy is Key:: International mediation efforts, like Steinmeier's visit, are vital in navigating complex post-conflict negotiations and encouraging compromise.
Will Armenia and Azerbaijan manage to overcome the final hurdles to achieve lasting peace? Share your thoughts below!
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Source 1: Steinmeier im Einsatz für Frieden zwischen Baku und Jerewan - DW (target="_blank")
Source 2: Steinmeier in Aserbaidschan - Ein selbstbewusster Gastgeber - Tagesschau (target="_blank")
Source 3: Aserbaidschan und Armenien: Frank-Walter Steinmeier auf Friedensmission - DER SPIEGEL (target="_blank")
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