Erdogan's Power Play: Two Paths to Stay in Control Amidst Protests

The İmamoğlu Challenge

Ekrem İmamoğlu, the Mayor of Istanbul, has emerged as a charismatic and popular figure, capable of appealing to diverse voter segments, including conservative, leftist, and Kurdish populations. His success in winning Istanbul's mayoral elections multiple times has positioned him as the most formidable potential opponent to President Erdogan. Erdogan's administration has pursued legal action against İmamoğlu, culminating in his recent arrest and the stripping of his university diploma, effectively creating hurdles for a potential presidential candidacy.

Erdogan's Strategic Maneuvers

Facing constitutional term limits, President Erdogan appears to be exploring pathways to remain in power. According to Turkey expert Çiğdem Akyol, two main options exist: calling for early elections or seeking a constitutional change. Both strategies necessitate building broader political support beyond his current coalition. This explains recent overtures towards Kurdish groups and potential peace talks involving Abdullah Öcalan, despite simultaneously cracking down on pro-Kurdish politicians and activists. This dual strategy, while seemingly contradictory, has proven effective for Erdogan in the past.

Authoritarian Trajectory

Journalists and experts like Deniz Yücel and Çiğdem Akyol characterize the current situation as a significant step towards deeper authoritarianism, even comparing the government's actions to a 'mafia regime'. They note that while Turkey has faced political turmoil before, including coups, the imprisonment of a leading presidential contender just before potential nomination marks a new low. The judiciary and media are largely seen as aligned with the government, diminishing checks and balances.

Geopolitical Implications

International bodies like the EU have reacted with restraint. Analyst Michael Bröcker points out that Europe and the US have significant interests tied to Turkey, including the EU-Turkey refugee deal, NATO security cooperation, and Turkey's role as a mediator. This geopolitical reality limits the leverage and willingness of Western powers to apply strong pressure on Erdogan regarding democratic backsliding, leaving Turkish civil society feeling isolated.

Public Sentiment

Despite Erdogan still having a substantial base, protests involving hundreds of thousands indicate growing discontent, even among former supporters. The economic crisis, high inflation, and the perceived disregard for democratic processes fuel public anger. However, support for Erdogan among Turkish diaspora communities, like in Germany, remains notable, though not monolithic, influenced by factors like national pride and skepticism towards foreign criticism.

Why was Ekrem İmamoğlu arrested?

Officially, the reasons relate to legal charges pursued by the authorities. However, analysts widely believe the arrest is politically motivated to eliminate a strong potential rival to President Erdogan ahead of future elections.

Can Erdogan legally run for president again?

Under the current Turkish constitution, Erdogan cannot run for a third term. He would need either to call early elections under specific circumstances or push through a constitutional amendment.

What are the protests about?

The protests are primarily against the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, which demonstrators see as an anti-democratic move by Erdogan's government to silence opposition and disregard the will of the voters.

Do you think international pressure could influence the political situation in Turkey? Let us know your thoughts!

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