CNBC Fed Survey: Bessent, Warsh, Hassett Leading Contenders for Fed Chair Job

The CNBC Fed Survey, which included fund managers, economists, and strategists, provides insights into the potential future leadership of the Federal Reserve and the economic outlook. The survey indicates a shift in sentiment regarding the likelihood of a recession, influenced by the president's tariff policies. While uncertainty surrounding tariffs has decreased, concerns about the labor market persist. Respondents also believe that Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut rates is actually making rate cuts less likely.

The survey also revealed that respondents are cautious about the stock market, with 84% seeing stocks as somewhat or extremely overvalued, the highest in a year. The average respondent puts the year-end S&P 500 level at 6,344, below the close on Monday. It's forecast to rise to 6,936 next year, a 9% increase.

According to the CNBC Fed Survey, the leading contenders are Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and Kevin Hassett, the National Economic Council director.

The probability of a recession in the next year has fallen to 31%, according to the survey.

Overall, respondents gave Powell a grade of B-, up from C+ in 2023, with solid B's on leadership, transparency, market knowledge and communication.

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