Gabriel Perez: , a technical assistant and Trump's teleprompter operator since 2016, is accused of betting on Kalshi's "Mentions" market — where users wager on whether specific words or phrases appear in public speeches.
The CFTC found that Perez placed bets on more than a dozen Trump speeches over a three-month period, including the State of the Union address, remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, and a Medal of Honor ceremony.
Kalshi's surveillance team flagged the unusual trading patterns and referred the case to the CFTC. The company froze most of the profits — reportedly over $90,000 — and has since updated its policies to require users to disclose their employment.
Why this matters:: This case highlights a growing regulatory gray area in prediction markets. Unlike traditional securities, event contracts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are relatively new, and enforcement around insider trading is still evolving. The DOJ recently brought its first-ever criminal cases for insider trading on prediction markets — against a Special Forces soldier and a Google employee — signaling that regulators are taking this seriously.
Prediction markets have exploded in popularity, allowing users to bet on everything from election outcomes to whether a specific word will be uttered during a political speech. Kalshi's "Mentions" market lets traders speculate on phrases that might appear in public remarks — a niche but lucrative niche.
Gabriel Perez, as the final set of eyes on nearly all of Trump's prepared remarks, had a unique informational advantage. Sources say he would sometimes exit bets mid-speech when Trump deviated from the script and skipped a word Perez had wagered on. Trump himself has acknowledged that he goes off-teleprompter about 80% of the time, which added both risk and opportunity for someone with Perez's access.
Kalshi's internal surveillance flagged Perez's trades in March 2026 as suspicious because they did not follow typical buying and selling patterns. Market makers in whistleblower channels separately flagged the activity. Using onboarding data and monitoring tools, Kalshi identified that the account holder worked for the federal government as a teleprompter operator.
The company then froze the account, retaining nearly all the profits, and referred the matter to the CFTC. Perez sat for an interview with regulators and acknowledged some of the trades. The CFTC alerted federal prosecutors in Manhattan, who declined to open a criminal investigation — though settlement discussions are ongoing, with terms likely requiring Perez to disgorge profits and refrain from similar trades.
This case follows two landmark insider trading prosecutions in the prediction market space:
Gannon Ken Van Dyke — A U.S. Army Special Forces master sergeant charged with betting on Polymarket contracts related to the mission to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, allegedly using inside knowledge from his role in planning the raid.
Michele Spagnuolo — A Google employee charged with fraud for betting on Polymarket contracts using internal company data about Google's "Year in Search" lists.
Both cases underscore that the Department of Justice and the CFTC are actively policing prediction markets for insider trading — a trend that will likely intensify as these platforms grow.
In March, the White House issued an internal memo warning staff against using nonpublic information to place bets on prediction markets. After the Perez story broke, Press Secretary Leavitt stated that the president personally made the decision to place Perez on unpaid leave.
Trump has expressed mixed feelings about prediction markets. While calling the concept "somewhat of a casino," he has acknowledged the U.S. could be "left out in the cold" if it doesn't allow companies like Kalshi and Polymarket to operate. Notably, Trump's own media company, Trump Media and Technology Group, announced in October 2025 that it was exploring launching its own prediction market offering.
What exactly did Gabriel Perez do?
Perez allegedly used his advance knowledge of President Trump's prepared speeches to place bets on Kalshi's "Mentions" market, wagering on whether specific words or phrases would appear. He reportedly won over $100,000 across more than a dozen speeches.
How did Kalshi catch him?
Kalshi's surveillance team flagged his trades for unusual patterns, and market makers in whistleblower channels also reported suspicious activity. Using customer onboarding data, the platform identified that the account belonged to a federal government employee working as a teleprompter operator.
What are the consequences for Perez?
He has been placed on unpaid leave. The CFTC is in settlement talks with him, with terms likely requiring him to return profits and agree not to engage in similar trades. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan declined to open a criminal case.
Is insider trading on prediction markets illegal?
Yes — the Department of Justice recently brought the first-ever criminal cases for insider trading on prediction markets. Kalshi also has a policy explicitly prohibiting trades based on nonpublic information obtained through employment.
What changes has Kalshi made in response?
Kalshi updated its policies to require users to disclose their place of employment. The company also introduced new security measures to combat insider trading across its platform.
For investors and traders:: Prediction markets are increasingly under regulatory scrutiny. Insider trading enforcement is real and carries serious consequences — both civil and criminal. Always review platform policies regarding employment-based disclosures.
For policy watchers:: This case illustrates the tension between innovation in financial markets and the need for guardrails. Expect the CFTC and DOJ to bring more enforcement actions as prediction markets grow.
For general readers:: The case highlights how access to nonpublic information — even seemingly trivial details like speech content — can create unfair advantages. Regulators are making clear that insider trading rules apply to prediction markets just as they do to securities markets.
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