Tintina Fault: Earthquake Risk in Yukon and Alaska

Why this matters: A major earthquake could have devastating consequences for communities in the Yukon and Alaska, impacting infrastructure and potentially causing casualties. Understanding the Tintina Fault’s activity is crucial for accurate seismic hazard assessments and preparedness efforts.

The Tintina Fault, extending approximately 1,000 kilometers (621 miles), has long been considered inactive. However, recent analysis of high-resolution topographic data and LiDAR surveys reveals a 130-kilometer (80-mile) segment near Dawson City, Canada, with signs of recent movement.

Researchers discovered fault scarps indicating that major earthquakes occurred during the Quaternary period. Specifically, glacial landforms dating back 2.6 million years were offset by approximately 1,000 meters (3,280 feet), while 132,000-year-old landforms were offset by 75 meters (246 feet). This suggests substantial seismic activity in the past. The absence of movement in landforms from the last 12,000 years indicates a period of relative quiescence, but also implies a build-up of strain.

Experts estimate that the fault accumulates 0.2 to 0.8 millimeters of strain annually. This accumulation could lead to a major earthquake exceeding magnitude 7.5. The potential impact includes damage to infrastructure, landslides, and risks to communities like Dawson City (population 1,600).

Scientists emphasize the need for further investigation to determine the recurrence intervals of past earthquakes and refine seismic hazard models.

Researchers estimate that a future earthquake on the Tintina Fault could exceed magnitude 7.5.

The Yukon Territory and neighboring Alaska, including communities like Dawson City, are at risk.

Residents should prepare go-bags, survival kits, and evacuation plans. Further research is needed to improve seismic hazard assessments and predictions.

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