MLB Picks Today: Best Bets and Home Run Props for March 29

Game Totals Focus:: Several picks favour the 'Under', including Brewers vs. Yankees (Under 8.5), Angels vs. White Sox (Under 8.5), Phillies vs. Nationals (Under 8.5), Marlins vs. Pirates (Under 8.5), and Red Sox vs. Rangers (Under 9), often citing strong pitcher matchups or pitcher-friendly parks.

Moneyline Value:: Specific teams are highlighted for moneyline bets, such as the Cardinals (+110 vs. Twins), Royals (-118 vs. Guardians), Astros (-122 vs. Mets), and Cubs (+106 vs. Diamondbacks), based on pitching advantages or bullpen comparisons.

Home Run Prop Targets:: Key hitters identified for potential home runs include Mark Vientos (Mets, +430 vs. Astros' Arrighetti), Kerry Carpenter (Tigers, +600 vs. Dodgers' Sasaki), and Shea Langeliers (Athletics, +500 vs. Mariners' Miller), based on pitcher tendencies (fly balls, specific pitch types) and hitter profiles.

Why this matters:: These insights point towards specific statistical matchups and perceived value in the betting lines, moving beyond just team names to focus on exploitable pitcher weaknesses or game conditions.

Brewers @ Yankees (Under 8.5): Nestor Cortes has a strong 3.21 ERA at Yankee Stadium, which plays pitcher-friendly outside the right-field porch. Max Fried adds to the strong pitching matchup.

Angels @ White Sox (Under 8.5): Both teams struggled offensively last season. Jose Soriano (Angels) had a solid 2024 (3.42 ERA), facing Jonathan Cannon (White Sox) who improved later in his rookie year.

Twins @ Cardinals (Cardinals +110): Erick Fedde (Cardinals) showed improved control in 2024 (3.32 ERA), while Joe Ryan (Twins) struggles on the road (4.14 career road ERA). The Cardinals bullpen ranked higher than the Twins' last season.

Royals (-118) vs. Guardians: Seth Lugo (Royals) offers better control (2.1 BB/9) and durability (6.26 IP/start) compared to Gavin Williams (Guardians, 3.8 BB/9, 4.75 IP/start).

Astros (-122) vs. Mets: Spencer Arrighetti (Astros) finished 2024 strong (3.08 ERA, 10.8 K/9 in final 14 appearances). Griffin Canning (Mets debut) struggled in 2024 (5.19 ERA) and now faces a low-strikeout Astros lineup.

Cubs (+106) @ Diamondbacks: Shota Imanaga (Cubs) boasts impressive stats (2.84 ERA, 1.6 BB/9). Brandon Pfaadt (D-backs) has been inconsistent, especially at home (5.56 career ERA in Arizona), backed by a lower-ranked bullpen.

Mark Vientos (Mets, +430): Targets Astros' Spencer Arrighetti, who allowed 21 HRs last season and gives up significant fly balls. Vientos hit 10 HRs vs. fly-ball pitchers in 2024.

Kerry Carpenter (Tigers, +600): Faces Dodgers' Roki Sasaki. Carpenter showed power against splitters from right-handers last year, a pitch Sasaki utilizes.

Shea Langeliers (Athletics, +500): Takes on Mariners' Bryce Miller, who had a high fly-ball rate (33%) and allowed 21 HRs last season. Langeliers hit well against splitters and sinkers, pitches Miller throws.

Analyze Pitching Matchups:: Look beyond ERA; consider pitcher splits (home/road), flyball vs. groundball rates, and specific pitch effectiveness when evaluating games or props.

Identify Value Lines:: Expert picks often highlight odds (+110, +106, +430, +600) where they perceive the payout is better than the implied probability.

Consider Player Props:: Specific player props, like home runs, can offer value if you identify favourable hitter vs. pitcher matchups (e.g., hitter excels against pitcher's primary pitch type or tendency to allow fly balls).

VSiN: MLB Picks Today: Greg Peterson Best Bets for March 29 ()

Covers: MLB HOME RUN PROPS, PICKS & ODDS TODAY FOR 3-29: Cracking Carpenter! () (Note: Original Covers link provided was broken, using inferred structure/title for reference)