Luck be a Phillie (Or, You Might Be Wrong About Stott and Bohm)

[H2] Bohm's Bad Luck vs. Stott's Good Fortune

The contrast between Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott early in the 2025 season is stark when looking beyond traditional stats. Data from Statcast reveals Bohm has been one of the unluckiest hitters in MLB, while Stott has been among the luckiest.

Bohm's gap between his expected batting average (xBA) and actual average, and expected slugging (xSLG) and actual slugging, are nearly double the next unluckiest players cited in early reports. If his performance matched his quality of contact, his average would be closer to .260 and slugging over .400 – respectable numbers that would quell much criticism. He's hitting the ball hard (89th percentile exit velocity, 86th percentile hard-hit rate) but has little to show for it, exemplified by a low .205 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP).

Conversely, Stott's actual stats significantly outperform his expected numbers. He has one of the largest positive differences between actual and expected weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) in the league. His success comes despite poor contact quality metrics: low bat speed, low barrel frequency, and a dramatic drop in his ability to "square-up" the ball (from 87th percentile in 2024 to 11th percentile early in 2025). His high BABIP of .333 is unlikely to sustain without improvement in contact quality.

[H2] What to Watch For

Bohm himself acknowledges the frustration but attributes it largely to bad luck, stating, "I guess the game’s trying to teach me a lesson maybe... I know eventually everything sort of evens out." He remains confident his numbers will normalize closer to his career averages.

The Phillies rely on Bohm's production, particularly from the right side. His struggles, continuing from late 2024, put pressure on the team. While adjustments are always possible, the data suggests Bohm is hitting well without results, while Stott is getting results without hitting particularly well. Observers should monitor if Bohm's BABIP trends upward and if Stott can either improve his contact or maintain his fortunate run.

[H2] Who This Affects Most

Why are Alec Bohm's stats so low if he's hitting the ball hard?

Bohm is experiencing bad luck on batted balls, hitting them hard but often directly at fielders, resulting in a low Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) despite good exit velocity and hard-hit rates.

Is Bryson Stott really playing that well?

While his traditional stats are decent, advanced metrics suggest Stott has been fortunate. His quality of contact (exit velocity, square-up rate) is significantly down from previous years, and his expected stats are near the bottom of the league.

What are expected stats (like xwOBA)?

Expected statistics (xStats) like expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) measure the likelihood of a batted ball becoming a hit based on its exit velocity and launch angle, removing defense and luck. They can indicate if a player is over or underperforming their quality of contact.

Are advanced stats a better indicator of future performance than traditional stats in this case? Do you think Bohm will bounce back and Stott will regress? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!

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