Big 12 Championship Scenarios: Week 13 Breakdown

Why this matters: The Big 12 Championship Game has College Football Playoff implications, making these final games high-stakes for all teams involved. Understanding the scenarios helps fans and analysts predict potential outcomes and appreciate the significance of each contest.

Background

The Big 12 conference race is heating up as teams battle for a chance to play in the championship game. With complex tiebreaker rules and crucial matchups, the final weeks promise excitement and potential upsets.

Team-by-Team Scenarios

Tiebreaker Procedures

The Big 12's tiebreaker procedure, enacted in 2024, will be used in determining the two teams who play at AT&T Stadium in December in the event of a two-team tie for second:

A. Head-to-head competition among the two tied teams.

B. Win percentage against all common conference opponents among the tied teams.

C. Win percentage against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group's own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.

D. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., the strength of conference schedule).

E. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins -- only one win against a team from the FCS or lower division will be counted annually. Any games that are exempted from counting against the annual maximum number of football contests per NCAA rules shall not be included.

F. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games.

G. Coin toss

If there are multi-team ties in the Big 12, which is a high-probability this season, the following procedure will be followed:

A. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games among the tied teams -- if all teams involved in the tie did not play each other, but one team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, the team that defeated all other teams in the tie is removed from the tiebreaker, and the remaining teams revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker process (i.e., two team or three or more team tie). Also, if all teams involved in the tie did not play each other and no team defeated all other teams involved in the tie, move to the next step in tiebreaker.

B. The records of the three (or more) tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage against all common conference opponents played by all other teams involved in the tie.

C. Record of the three (or more) tied teams against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on the record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group's own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.

D. Record of the three (or more) tied teams based on combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., strength of conference schedule)

E. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins: Only one win against a team from the FCS or lower division will be counted.

Key Week 13 Matchups

Actionable Takeaways

The Big 12 has a detailed tiebreaker procedure that considers head-to-head results, win percentages against common opponents, strength of schedule, and other factors.

As of Week 13, BYU controls its destiny. Other teams need help from other results.

Do you think BYU will clinch a spot this week? Which team do you think will ultimately win the Big 12 Championship? Let us know in the comments!

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