2026 Kentucky Derby: Predictions, Odds, and Key Storylines

Expert Predictions: Michelle Yu, a top horse racing expert, is high on The Puma (10-1), trained by Gustavo Delgado and ridden by Javier Castellano. Yu also suggests avoiding Commandment (6-1) due to concerns about diminishing win margins in longer races.

Trainer Bob Baffert: Legendary trainer Bob Baffert aims to break Ben Jones' record for most Derby wins with his horses Potente (20-1) and Litmus Test (30-1).

Feel-Good Story: Trainer Mark Glatt, making his Derby debut at 53 with So Happy, adds an emotional angle, as he copes with the recent loss of his wife. Jockey Mike Smith, 59, seeks to become the oldest Derby-winning jockey aboard So Happy.

Historical Trends: The No. 1 post position hasn't produced a winner since 1986. Non-U.S. trained horses also face an uphill battle, with Tomy Lee (1959) being the last horse bred outside North America to win.

Post Position: Can Renegade win from the No. 1 post, which hasn't seen a winner in decades?

International Horses: Can Danon Bourbon, Wonder Dean, and Six Speed break the trend of non-winners from outside the U.S.A.?

Running Styles: Understanding a horse's running style (front-runner, stalker, closer) is crucial for making informed bets. Closers, like 2022 winner Rich Strike, can benefit from a fast early pace.

Triple Crown Updates: The Preakness will be held at Laurel Park due to renovations at Pimlico. Churchill Downs Inc. is set to acquire the Preakness brand in 2026, potentially leading to changes in the Triple Crown schedule.

Belmont Stakes: The Belmont Stakes will remain at Saratoga for the third consecutive year and is expected to return to Belmont Park in 2027.

Irad Ortiz Jr., with more than $15 million in purse money won in 2026, chose to ride Renegade after winning Derby prep races on multiple horses.

Flavien Prat, riding Emerging Market, won the Florida Derby on Commandment but opted for the long shot.

Consider placing Further Ado on top of exactas and trifectas. Other contenders include Commandment and The Puma.

A:: The race will be held on Saturday, May 2, 2026, at 6:57 p.m. ET.

A:: Renegade is the favorite at 4-1 odds.

A:: Michelle Yu has a strong track record and is high on The Puma.

Stay informed about expert predictions and consider underdogs like The Puma.

Be aware of historical trends, such as the challenges faced by horses from the No. 1 post and those trained outside the U.S.

Understand different running styles and how they can impact a horse's performance.

Follow jockey selections and consider their past successes.