MLB Strikeout Prop Bets for June 23, 2025: Top Picks and Predictions

Bailey Ober (Under 5.5 Strikeouts):: Ober's current form, indicated by a 4.63 SIERA and low strikeout rate (17.8%), suggests betting the under. The Seattle Mariners, despite being a strong offensive team, have a moderate strikeout rate against righties. Why this matters: Ober's struggles and the Mariners' decent hitting ability make the under a favorable bet.

Matthew Liberatore (Over 3.5 Strikeouts):: Liberatore has a favorable matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who struggle against left-handed pitching. His solid performance this season, combined with the Cubs' high strikeout rate against lefties, makes the over an attractive bet. Why this matters: Liberatore's effectiveness and the Cubs' struggles against lefties increase the likelihood of him exceeding 3.5 strikeouts.

Paul Blackburn (Over 3.5 Strikeouts):: Blackburn faces the Atlanta Braves. The model projects him to exceed 3.5 strikeouts.

Braxton Ashcraft (Over 2.5 Strikeouts):: Ashcraft faces the Milwaukee Brewers. The SportsLine Projection Model rates Ashcraft Over 2.5 as a 5-star play. Ashcraft has worked at least two innings in four of his seven relief outings and has allowed one run just twice.

Bailey Ober vs. Seattle Mariners:: Bailey Ober's struggles with form, highlighted by a 4.63 SIERA and a low strikeout rate of 17.8%, make the under 5.5 strikeouts a compelling bet. The Mariners' offense, despite playing in a pitcher-friendly park, has a .762 OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days, ranking seventh in MLB. FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections anticipate a median of 4.60 strikeouts for Ober, implying odds closer to -218 on the under.

Matthew Liberatore vs. Chicago Cubs:: Matthew Liberatore's matchup against the Chicago Cubs is favorable due to the Cubs' struggles against left-handed pitching. Over the past month, the Cubs rank in the bottom 12 in OPS (.651) and strikeout rate (23.8%) against lefties. Liberatore, a former top prospect, has shown improvement this season with a 3.74 SIERA and a 10.1% swinging-strike rate. Projections estimate Liberatore to record 4.74 median strikeouts, suggesting value in betting over 3.5 strikeouts.

Braxton Ashcraft vs. Milwaukee Brewers:: Braxton Ashcraft is making his first start of the season against the Brewers, having previously made seven relief appearances. Ashcraft has worked at least two innings in four of those seven outings, and the SportsLine Projection Model rates the over 2.5 strikeouts as a 5-star play.

Paul Blackburn vs. Atlanta Braves:: Paul Blackburn, despite recent team struggles, faces the Atlanta Braves. The SportsLine Projection Model rates the over 3.5 strikeouts as a strong play.

Bailey Ober:: Consider the under due to his current form and the Mariners' decent offense.

Matthew Liberatore:: The over is a strong bet given the Cubs' struggles against lefties.

Braxton Ashcraft:: Over 2.5 strikeouts is a high-value play based on projections.

Paul Blackburn:: Over 3.5 strikeouts is a strong play based on projections.