WNBA Trade Deadline & Championship Odds: Key Storylines After the All-Star Break

Why this matters: The upcoming trade deadline could reshape playoff contention. Teams like the Connecticut Sun (sellers) and Washington Mystics (potential buyers) have cap space and assets to swing the balance of power.

The Championship Picture

The Minnesota Lynx entered the season at +800 but now lead all teams as +110 favorites at BetMGM. Their over/under win total has jumped from 25.5 to 33.5, reflecting just how dramatically rookie Olivia Miles has transformed the franchise. Without Collier for 27 of 28 games, Miles has played her way into the MVP conversation, and now that the superstar forward is back, the Lynx boast the league's deepest and most balanced roster.

Head coach and president of basketball operations Cheryl Reeve has kept the team "open for business" at the deadline, but the key question is whether she can secure assurance that Collier will re-sign long-term. A potential sign-and-trade involving Collier remains a hypothetical, but Reeve's leverage lies in the fact that Minnesota is a legitimate title contender *with* her.

Trade Deadline Dynamics

Kelsey Plum remains the most intriguing name on the market. The Sparks are 10-16 and four games back of the final playoff spot. League sources indicate Plum does not intend to re-sign in Los Angeles, putting the franchise in the same position it faced when Candace Parker, Chelsea Gray, and Nneka Ogwumike all left in free agency. The Sparks fired general manager Raegan Pebley earlier this month, and new owner Mark Walter is taking a more active role, but meaningful trade talks involving Plum have not materialized.

Napheesa Collier's situation is more nuanced. She signed a one-year supermax deal after being cored by the Lynx, signaling a desire to test free agency. However, Minnesota's contender status means Reeve is not operating from desperation. A midseason trade is unlikely unless Collier explicitly requests one, but her expiring contract makes her a name to watch.

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton of the New York Liberty has been in trade conversations since the start of the season. After missing all of 2025 with a meniscus injury, her role has been limited — she received three consecutive DNPs entering the break. The Liberty's asking price remains high, but with an expiring $400,000 deal, a deal could materialize.

Sellers and Buyers

The Connecticut Sun are positioned as prime sellers with $800,769 in cap space. Second-year forward Aneesah Morrow has been mentioned in trade talks, with a potential deal sending her to New York for Laney-Hamilton among the possibilities.

The Washington Mystics are an intriguing wild card. They hold the final playoff spot and have $1.84 million in cap space. They could accelerate their rebuild by pursuing Plum, who would complement leading scorer Sonia Citron in the backcourt.

The Phoenix Mercury, after a 2025 finals run, are now 12th in the standings and five games out of playoff position. They have cooled on trade talks involving Alyssa Thomas but could target Dallas Wings forward Alanna Smith, the reigning co-Defensive Player of the Year who is averaging just 3.8 points in 14.2 minutes off the bench.

Betting Outlook

The Las Vegas Aces (+350) remain the primary threat to Minnesota as defending champions. The New York Liberty (+650) offer the best value according to analysts, given their injured core returning to health. The Golden State Valkyries (+900) have been a surprise contender at 19-8.

A standout individual betting play is Gabby Williams (+110) to win Defensive Player of the Year. As the anchor of the Valkyries' top-ranked defense, she offers strong value against candidates like A'ja Wilson (voter fatigue) and Natasha Howard (splitting credit with Collier).

When is the WNBA trade deadline?

The 2026 WNBA trade deadline is Sunday, August 2. Teams have until then to finalize trades before the postseason push.

Will Napheesa Collier be traded before the deadline?

While Collier is on an expiring contract and could theoretically be moved, the Lynx are championship contenders with the best record in the league. Minnesota's Cheryl Reeve has said the team is "open for business," but trading Collier midseason is unlikely given that she just returned and makes them stronger.

What is Kelsey Plum's trade value?

Plum is averaging 23.9 points per game this season and is on a one-year, $999,999 deal. She does not intend to re-sign with the Sparks, making her a rental asset. Teams like the Washington Mystics (with $1.84M in cap space) could make a move, but the Sparks' interim front office has not engaged in serious talks.

Why are the New York Liberty struggling?

The Liberty are 15-12 due to a stockpile of injuries. Jonquel Jones had offseason surgery and started slowly, Sabrina Ionescu has missed time with foot and back issues, Satou Sabally has dealt with a cyst and concussion, and key role players like Leonie Fiebich and Marine Johannes are injured. All are expected to return soon.

Who are the favorites for WNBA Defensive Player of the Year?

Gabby Williams (+110) of the Golden State Valkyries is the current favorite, followed by Natasha Howard (+250) and A'ja Wilson. Williams is the leader of the league's best defense and is seen as strong value at plus odds.

The second half of the WNBA season is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable and exciting in recent memory. Do you think the Lynx can hold off the Aces and Liberty to win their first title since 2024? Will Kelsey Plum end up in a new uniform before the deadline? Let us know in the comments below!

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