Karen Khachanov is favored to win with an implied probability of 87.5% according to betting odds.
Khachanov has struggled for form since reaching the Canadian Open final last summer.
Jesper de Jong has faced a difficult start to the year, including a first-round loss at the Australian Open.
Khachanov has an 84% chance of winning against De Jong at the ATP Rotterdam Open tournament, based on Dimers' advanced tennis model.
Khachanov has a 79% chance of winning the first set, according to simulations.
Karen Khachanov enters the Rotterdam Open as the favorite, despite inconsistent form. His opponent, Jesper de Jong, aims to pull off an upset after a challenging start to the season. Khachanov's hard-court record shows a 15-15 match record over the past year, with strong service game win percentages. De Jong's hard-court record is 7-9 with lower service game win percentages. Dimers' model gives Khachanov a significant edge, but tennis can always hold surprises. Keep an eye on Khachanov's ability to convert break points and De Jong's resilience in return games. The Stats Zone predicts Khachanov to win 2-0.
Q: What are the odds for the Khachanov vs. de Jong match?
Khachanov is favored at -699, while de Jong is the underdog at +450.
Q: When is the match scheduled?
Wednesday, February 11, 2026, at 7:10 AM ET.
Key takeaways: Khachanov is the strong favorite, but de Jong will look to cause an upset. Watch for Khachanov's serve and break point conversion, and de Jong's ability to stay competitive in return games. Khachanov needs a convincing win to regain form, while de Jong seeks a breakthrough performance.
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