Tommy Paul was favored to win with odds of -325, while Corentin Moutet was the underdog at +240.
Dimers' predictive model gave Paul a 75% chance of winning the match and a 69% chance of winning the first set.
Moutet had a 53% chance of covering the +4.5 game spread.
Paul has won 83.5% of his service games on hard courts over the past 12 months.
Why this matters: Understanding these probabilities and stats can help bettors make more informed decisions. The analysis provides a clear picture of each player's strengths and weaknesses on hard courts.
The match took place on a hard court at the Delray Beach Open. Tommy Paul, ranked No. 24, was seeking his first hard-court tournament victory of 2026. Corentin Moutet, ranked No. 34, aimed to upset the higher-ranked player.
Moneyline:: Moutet +270, Paul -357
First Set:: Moutet +220, Paul -278
Game Spread:: Moutet +4.5 (-128), Paul -4.5 (-106)
Total Games:: Over 21.5 (-110), Under 21.5 (-120)
Paul's strong service game on hard courts (83.5% win rate) gave him an edge. Moutet's break-point conversion rate of 45.5% suggested he could capitalize on opportunities, but the odds favored Paul's overall consistency.
Consider Paul for the first set bet due to his higher probability of winning it.
Moutet covering the game spread (+4.5) was a reasonable bet given his chances.
Q: Who was favored to win the match?
Tommy Paul was the favorite with a 75% win probability according to Dimers' predictive model.
Q: What were the odds for Moutet to win?
Moutet's odds to win the match were +270.
Q: What was Paul's service game win rate on hard courts?
Paul has won 83.5% of his service games on hard courts over the past 12 months.
For readers, the key takeaways are:
Tommy Paul had a significant statistical advantage and was the likely winner.
Betting on Paul to win the first set was a favorable option.
Moutet had a decent chance to cover the game spread, making it a potentially valuable bet.
Always consider the odds and probabilities before placing bets.
This information is compiled by Yanuki using the latest trends and data to help you stay informed.
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