El Niño Dominance: A strong El Niño pattern is expected to drive weather features nationwide, contributing to above-average temperatures across nearly the entire U.S. from September through November.
Regional Temperature Swells: The highest probabilities (greater than 50%) of above-normal temperatures are forecast for southeastern Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and the northern Rockies. Coastal areas of the Southeast and Florida will also experience warm nights and high humidity.
Almanac Divergence: While the *Old Farmer's Almanac* and *Farmers' Almanac* agree on cooler, wetter conditions in the Northeast and dry warmth in the Southwest, they clash sharply on the Pacific Northwest and Southeast moisture outlooks.
Precipitation Split: NOAA predicts drier-than-average conditions in parts of the Northwest and Northeast, while the Southwest and Southeast are slated to be wetter. This could provide historic drought relief to reservoirs like Lake Mead and Lake Powell.
Why This Matters: Extended warmth impacts energy consumption, agricultural cycles, and wildfire risks. For instance, continued heat in the Pacific Northwest suggests wildfires may burn longer into October before seasonal rains potentially suppress them. Conversely, increased rainfall in the Southeast poses flood risks due to rapid weather shifts.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released a fall temperature outlook indicating coast-to-coast warmth. Lead meteorologist Scott Handel noted that the signal from El Niño is "very strong," giving forecasters good confidence in these projections.
Temperature Map: Above-average temperatures are favored for most of Alaska, the western and central contiguous U.S., the Great Lakes, the Northeast, mid-Atlantic, and Florida. Only the Ohio Valley shows "equal chances" for above- or below-normal temps.
Snowfall Timeline: The first snowflakes will likely remain confined to mountain elevations in late September and early October. AccuWeather experts note that while the Rockies (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming) may see early-season snow, the Cascades might see a slower onset due to the warm start.
Two major almanacs have released conflicting views on regional precipitation, offering consumers a study in contrasts. Both organizations emphasize their historical data and proprietary formulas, such as sunspot activity and tidal actions, though meteorologists caution that long-range almanac predictions are probabilistic trends rather than daily forecasts.
| Region | Old Farmer's Almanac | Farmers' Almanac | Consensus? |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| Pacific Northwest | Cooler and Wetter | Cold and Dry | ❌ No |
| Southeast | Cool and Dry | Warm and Stormy | ❌ No |
| Northeast | Cooler and Wetter | Cool and Wet | ✅ Yes |
| Southwest | Warmer and Drier | Warm and Drier | ✅ Yes |
| Southern Texas | Warmer and Slightly Wetter | Warm and Wet | ✅ Yes |
The Southwest & Drought Relief: Sustained severe drought has pushed Lake Mead and Lake Powell to historic lows. Federal maps suggest a greater than 40% chance of above-normal precipitation in the Southwest and Great Basin, hinting at potential hydrological relief. However, the Southwest will still see below-average rainfall overall.
Mississippi & The Deep South: Locally, the *Old Farmer's Almanac* predicts a hotter-than-normal autumn for Mississippi. While the Gulf Coast faces warmer and drier conditions, other regions may see up to 4 inches less rain than average. Historically, Mississippi does not sustain cool temperatures until mid-October.
Wildfire Concerns: The Northwest faces a dual threat. Early fall lacks rain, keeping fire risks high. However, the setup in the northeast Pacific indicates a potential shift toward rain and snow by mid-to-late September that could diminish new fire risks, provided the almanacs' drier forecast doesn't prove correct for the region.
Water Conservation: Despite potential wetness in the Southwest, drought stress lingers. Residents in California and Arizona should monitor reservoir levels closely.
Event Planning: Event planners in the Southeast should budget for storms and humidity, per the *Farmers' Almanac*, while those in the Northeast might prefer the agreed-upon "cool and wet" aesthetic for autumn gatherings.
Heat Management: Expect "feeling temperatures" to linger due to humidity, particularly in the mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Cooling systems will remain critical well into November.
When does Fall officially start in 2026?
There are two start dates. Meteorological fall begins immediately on September 1, allowing for easier quarterly analysis. Astronomical fall begins at the autumnal equinox, which occurs at 8:05 p.m. ET on September 22, 2026.
How accurate are almanac forecasts compared to NOAA?
Almanacs generally cite an 80% accuracy rate for general trends but acknowledge lower accuracy for specific precipitation amounts (often cited around 50% historically). NOAA uses complex climate models focused on large-scale atmospheric signals like El Niño, making their seasonal averages highly reliable, whereas almanacs serve as supplemental guides for farmers and gardeners.
Will the heat affect the Northeast?
Yes. Both federal forecasters and both almanacs predict above-average or near-average temperatures coupled with "wet" conditions for the Northeast. While it won't be record-breaking heat like the Southwest, residents should expect a humid and changeable autumn.
Is flooding a concern?
Yes. Experts warn of a "quick change to wet weather" from the southern Plains to the interior Southeast. Areas expecting above-normal precipitation, particularly in the Southwest and coastal Southeast, should prepare for potential flooding events.
Expect a Hot Autumn: Unless you live in pockets of the Ohio Valley, brace for temperatures above the 30-year average. Pack layers, but prioritize breathable fabrics for the lingering humidity in the Eastern U.S.
Watch the Sky, Not Just the Calendar: If you reside in the Pacific Northwest, monitor fire alerts; if you are in the Southwest or Southeast, track flood warnings. The weather split is the defining feature of Fall 2026.
Drought Monitoring: The potential for precipitation in the Great Basin and Rockies offers a glimmer of hope for water-stressed infrastructure, though total deficits will likely persist.
Use Data for Decisions: Whether planting crops or scheduling outdoor weddings, combine NOAA's reliable temperature outlook with almanac insights for localized trend adjustments.
The debate between federal models and traditional almanacs continues to fuel interest in long-range forecasting. With El Niño steering the ship, do you think this extended heatwave will disrupt your fall routines?
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Sources
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