Hawaii Under Water Threat: Tropical Storm Moke is moving past Hawaii, delivering heavy moisture. Expect 5–10 inches of rain on the Big Island, with isolated areas seeing up to 15 inches.
Secondary Hazard Alert: Because Hurricane Lala devastated the southeast-facing slopes of the Big Island less than a week ago, soils are saturated. This creates an extreme risk for flash flooding and debris mudslides as Moke passes.
Atlantic System Watch: A large disturbance off West Africa is being monitored. While initial odds are low, long-range forecasts indicate it could turn north and intensify significantly once it clears African dust and El Niño-related wind shear.
Seasonal Context: It marks the anniversary of Hurricane Andrew's formation (August 22, 1992), highlighting how quickly storms can develop.
Eastern Pacific Development: Multiple disturbances in the Eastern Pacific are forecast to merge, potentially creating a major hurricane west of Mexico, bringing dangerous surf to US and Mexican coastlines.
Why this matters: With El Niño conditions generally suppressing Atlantic storms via wind shear, any system that manages to organize—like the upcoming African system—is statistically significant and requires close attention.
Moke is tracking well south of the main Hawaiian archipelago. However, its size and the amount of moisture it carries mean impacts will be widespread.
Impact Breakdown:
Big Island: Southeast-facing slopes will receive the heaviest precipitation (up to 15 inches). High elevations may experience gusty winds downslope.
Maui/Oahu: Rainfall amounts will be lighter, generally 1–2 inches, though Maui's eastern slopes could see up to 4 inches.
Hazards: The primary danger is not wind, but water. Flash flooding urban areas and triggering mudslides in burn scars left by Hurricane Lala earlier this month.
Meteorologists note three distinct areas of tropical wave activity in the East Pacific. Forecasts suggest the top two orange/red areas will likely converge, forming a single, powerful cyclone.
Forecast Track: The merged system is projected to track northward far offshore of Mexico.
Impacts: Direct land interaction is unlikely, but swell generated by this system will bring high surf and dangerous rip currents to Baja California and the Gulf of California over the coming weekend.
Despite the typical challenges posed by El Niño (dry air and wind shear), a disturbance exiting Africa is generating model interest.
Current Status: The system is currently over land with limited organization prospects immediately.
The Gauntlet: To survive, the system must cross the Saharan Air Layer (SAL)—dry, dusty air that inhibits storm growth—and the upper-level winds associated with El Niño.
Long-Term Scenarios: Some global models show the system curving north into the central Atlantic once these inhibitors pass, potentially reaching hurricane strength in 7–10 days.
Watch List: If the storm moves north, Bermuda should monitor the tracks late next week.
To understand the health of the season beyond just storm names, meteorologists use specific metrics:
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): This measures the total energy of a season, combining storm duration and intensity. It helps contextualize if a "quiet" year still produced one massive outlier hurricane.
Wind Shear: Represented often by purple shading on satellite maps, high wind shear tears storms apart vertically.
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST): Warm waters act as fuel. Areas exceeding 80°F (27°C) usually support rapid intensification.
On this day in 1992 (August 22), the precursor to Hurricane Andrew was first noted. Early forecasts struggled to predict its trajectory toward South Florida. The evolution of forecasting technology since 1992 has drastically improved lead times, which is vital right now as communities recover from Lala and prepare for Moke.
For Hawaii Residents: Secure outdoor items that could become projectiles in high winds or debris flows. Have sandbags ready if you live in low-lying areas prone to flash floods. Avoid traveling through washes.
General Tracking: Bookmark the NOAA NHC pages and set alerts. For the Atlantic disturbance, re-evaluate tracking maps daily around Day 5 to see if the system successfully bridges the gap between Africa and the Atlantic.
Q: Will Tropical Storm Moke make landfall on Hawaii?
No, Moke is forecast to pass well to the south of the islands. However, its circulation will still dump heavy rain across the islands even without a direct landfall.
Q: What is the biggest risk from Moke right now?
Flash flooding and mudslides. The ground is already saturated from Hurricane Lala, making steep terrain highly unstable.
Q: Is the Atlantic system dangerous yet?
Not currently. It is too far away over Africa. Meteorologists are watching it because, in the rare event it survives the African dust, it could become a notable late-season storm.
Q: Why is the Eastern Pacific active despite El Niño?
El Niño suppresses the Atlantic specifically due to wind shear over the ocean. The Pacific often reacts differently, sometimes becoming busier when Atlantic activity is stifled.
Q: How does ACE help us track the season?
ACE gives a scorecard for the whole season. It helps scientists compare 2026 against historical averages like 2020 or 2005 to see if the season is "above normal" overall.
Immediate Danger: If you are in Hawaii, prioritize safety from water. Moke poses a higher threat of flooding than damaging winds.
Look Ahead: Monitor the Atlantic disturbance off Africa. While the odds are low, the potential payoff for forecasters is a strong late-season storm.
Be Aware of Swell: Even if a Pacific storm stays at sea, prepare for beach closures and surf hazards along the California and Mexican coasts.
Stay Informed: Use tools like RADAR and satellite trackers to see real-time wind shear and moisture movement.
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