Potential Tropical Development in Caribbean Sea

An area of disturbed weather is moving through the western Caribbean and is expected to cross into the Bay of Campeche. Forecast models suggest environmental conditions will likely inhibit tropical cyclone formation, but the unique geography of the Bay of Campeche can lead to systems outperforming model expectations. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected to spread into Central America and southeastern Mexico. Steering currents will move the system west-northwest toward northeastern Mexico by early Monday, potentially reaching as far north as the Rio Grande Valley in South Texas. The Atlantic should stay mostly quiet into the first week of July. Several factors have contributed to the suppressed activity in the Atlantic basin, including above-normal surface pressures, increased atmospheric stability and a lack of moisture over the tropics. Adding to the suppression is the heightened amount of tropical activity in the eastern Pacific, which is running close to 30% above normal.

While a disturbed weather area is being monitored, the odds of tropical development remain low.

Steering currents will move the system west-northwest toward northeastern Mexico by early Monday.

Heavy rains are expected in Central America and southeastern Mexico.

Do you think this disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone? Let us know in the comments!

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