Severe Storms:: The Southern Plains, Tennessee, and Ohio valleys are at the highest risk for severe storms, with potential for damaging winds and heavy rain. There is also a threat of tornadoes and large hail from the Texas Panhandle into southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas.
Flash Flooding:: Oklahoma, the Ohio, Tennessee, and mid-Mississippi valleys, and the interior Northeast could experience flash flooding from heavy rain.
Weekend Outlook:: A large portion of the South could see scattered thunderstorms throughout the weekend. The greatest severe storm potential lies from North Texas and Oklahoma into parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Wind damage, lightning, and flash flooding are the primary concerns.
Sunday's Focus:: Severe storms will primarily target the Southeast coast to southeast Virginia (damaging winds) and the Southern Plains (widespread wind gusts, large hail, flash flooding, and isolated tornadoes).
Early Next Week:: Expect continued rounds of storms across the South early next week, with the stormy pattern potentially shifting southward. Multi-inch rainfall totals are possible in areas hit repeatedly by storms.
A stalled front over the region is contributing to humid conditions and an increased chance of strong afternoon storms. Waves of low pressure moving along this front will sustain the risk of heavy showers and isolated flooding into Saturday. High pressure is expected to return on Sunday and continue into Monday, bringing drier and more stable weather. Clusters of severe storms, known as mesoscale convective systems, are a key driver behind the drenching pattern. These systems are common in summertime and can produce severe weather and heavy rain.
The hot and humid Triad weather pattern will support heavy thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoons and evenings through Sunday, potentially including damaging wind gusts. Be aware of dense fog pockets in the morning, especially in the foothills, Triad, and mountain valleys. The risk of severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, and lightning will continue through the evening hours.
Several models indicate the potential for strong storm systems and the development of large clusters of thunderstorms that can cover significant areas. These clusters tend to ramp up during the evening and persist through much of the night, following paths of atmospheric instability.
What areas are most at risk for severe weather?
** The Southern Plains, Tennessee, and Ohio valleys face the highest risk of severe storms, including damaging winds, heavy rain, tornadoes, and large hail.
What is causing the stormy pattern in the South?
** A stalled front, waves of low pressure, and clusters of severe storms known as mesoscale convective systems are contributing to the prolonged period of unsettled weather.
When will the weather improve?
** High pressure is expected to return on Sunday, bringing drier and more settled weather that should extend into Monday.
Stay informed about local weather forecasts and alerts.
Have a plan for seeking shelter in case of severe weather, particularly lightning.
Be prepared for potential flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas.
If traveling, monitor weather conditions along your route and adjust plans as necessary.
Secure outdoor objects that could be blown away by strong winds.
The greatest threats include damaging winds and flash flooding.
Do you think this severe weather pattern will continue? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
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