MLB Stars Exceeding Expectations and Over/Under Predictions for 2025

In-Depth Analysis

### Players Exceeding Expectations

Several MLB players have significantly outperformed their projected fWAR (FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement), showcasing breakout seasons. ZiPS, a projection system by Dan Szymborski, compares projected fWAR to actual fWAR to identify these players.

Here are some notable players exceeding expectations:

1. **Kyle Stowers (OF, Marlins):** Projected for 1.1 fWAR, Stowers has reached 4.0 fWAR with a significant increase in pulled airball rate. 2. **Geraldo Perdomo (SS, D-backs):** Perdomo's improved hitting, line drive rate, and handling of breaking balls have led to a 5.0 fWAR, exceeding his projected 2.2. 3. **Nick Kurtz (1B, Athletics):** With a projected 0.9 fWAR, Kurtz has exploded onto the scene with a 4.1 fWAR and an impressive 1.054 OPS. 4. Jesús Luzardo (LHP, Phillies): Luzardo has been a surprise this season. He has 3.8 fWAR and 4.10 ERA compared to the projected 1.4 fWAR and 4.45 ERA. Luzardo has been a different guy in 2025, thanks in large part to a brand new strikeout pitch -- a sweeper against which opponents have a 44.6% whiff rate. 5. **Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, Cubs):** Crow-Armstrong has surpassed expectations with a 5.4 fWAR, driven by a power surge and improved defense. 6. **Kyle Schwarber (DH, Phillies):** At 32, Schwarber combines power and average, resulting in a 4.2 fWAR, significantly higher than his projected 2.2. 7. **Cal Raleigh (C, Mariners):** Raleigh's exceptional offensive season has led to a 7.1 fWAR, exceeding his projected 5.1. 8. **Maikel Garcia (INF, Royals):** Garcia's improved batting average and on-base percentage have resulted in a 4.4 fWAR, compared to his projected 2.6. 9. **Hunter Brown (RHP, Astros):** Brown's strong second half has propelled him to a 4.2 fWAR, exceeding his projected 2.4. 10. **Zach McKinstry (INF/OF, Tigers):** McKinstry is one of several utility players on the roster who can easily get into 100 games even without a significant injury to a starter. His 2025 projections (.237/.305/.374, 8 HR, 13 SB) likely would have constituted his best offensive season -- his actual 2025 season definitely is.

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FAQ

Takeaways

• Several MLB players are exceeding expectations, making the 2025 season one to remember.
• Key players to watch include Cal Raleigh, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Kurtz.
• Over/under predictions provide insights into potential statistical milestones for star players.

Discussion

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Disclaimer

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