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Golf / PGA Championship

2025 PGA Championship: Predictions, Odds, and Expert Picks

The 2025 PGA Championship is set to take place at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C., and experts are already making their predictions. With Rory McIlroy fresh off completing a career Grand Slam and Justin Thomas having won the RBC Herita...

2025 PGA Championship picks, odds, field: Surprising predictions from proven golf model that hit 14 majors
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2025 PGA Championship: Predictions, Odds, and Expert Picks Image via CBS Sports

Key Insights

  • **Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler are co-favorites** at 5-1 according to early odds.
  • **SportsLine's model predicts Collin Morikawa will struggle**, barely cracking the top 10 due to course length and putting difficulties. Why this matters: Morikawa's historical success doesn't guarantee performance on a course that may not suit his current form.
  • **Justin Thomas is a longshot pick at 20-1**, favored due to his success at Quail Hollow in 2017 and strong putting stats. Why this matters: Thomas's familiarity with the course and recent form make him a compelling option for bettors.
  • **Ludvig Aberg (18-1) is a promising pick** due to his strong total driving stats and proximity to the hole from long distances. Why this matters: Aberg's performance at the Masters and his ability to handle long courses position him as a contender.
  • **Jason Day (80-1) offers high value**, with wins at both Quail Hollow and Torrey Pines, plus a top-10 finish at the Masters. Why this matters: Day's history at similar courses and recent form suggest he could surprise many.

In-Depth Analysis

The 2025 PGA Championship returns to Quail Hollow, a course known for demanding both length and accuracy off the tee. This makes Total Driving a crucial skill. Several experts have identified potential contenders, with a focus on those who perform well at similar courses like Torrey Pines, Valhalla, and Trump National Doral.

**Key Player Analysis:**

  • **Collin Morikawa:** Despite being a two-time major winner, the model at SportsLine predicts Morikawa will struggle. Quail Hollow's 7,500+ yard layout could challenge Morikawa, who ranks 163rd in driving distance. His short game is also a concern, ranking 128th in total putting.
  • **Justin Thomas:** A strong contender at 20-1, Thomas won the PGA Championship in 2017 at Quail Hollow. His current form is promising, with a recent win at the RBC Heritage and top rankings in putting average, putts per round, and one-putt percentage.
  • **Ludvig Aberg:** Ranked 34th on Tour in Total Driving this season, Aberg is also No. 1 in Hole Proximity from 200 yards out or more. His strong performance at the Masters further solidifies his potential.
  • **Jason Day:** With wins at Quail Hollow and Torrey Pines, Day's history on similar courses makes him a compelling pick at 80-1. His top-10 finish at the Masters adds to his appeal.
  • **Xander Schauffele:** The defending champion also has a strong track record at Quail Hollow, finishing runner-up in the Wells Fargo Championship for the past two seasons. His familiarity with Torrey Pines and strong Total Driving stats make him a contender.

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FAQ

- **Q: Who are the favorites to win the 2025 PGA Championship?

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- **Q: Why is Justin Thomas considered a good longshot pick?

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- **Q: What makes Quail Hollow a challenging course?

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Takeaways

  • **Consider course history:** Quail Hollow's characteristics favor players who excel in Total Driving and perform well on long, demanding courses.
  • **Look beyond the favorites:** While McIlroy and Scheffler are popular picks, longshots like Justin Thomas and Jason Day could offer better value.
  • **Pay attention to recent form:** Players like Aberg and Schauffele have shown strong recent performances, making them viable contenders.
  • **Understand key stats:** Total Driving, putting average, and proximity to the hole from long distances are crucial stats to consider when making your picks.

Discussion

Do you think these predictions will hold true? Who are your picks for the 2025 PGA Championship? Let us know in the comments below!

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