What is DVOA?
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) is a football statistic that measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average, based on situation and opponent.
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NFL Week 13: Trends, DVOA Analysis, and Fields' Benching | Leo Chenal Free Agency Outlook: Potential Roles and Team Fits | Titans Sign Former Chiefs CB Joshua Williams | Chargers Sign Cole Strange to Bolster Offensive Line | Eagles 7-Round NFL Mock Draft 2026: Reshaping the Roster | 2026 Free Agent Forecast: Patriots Focus on Offensive Line | Eagles Eye Jalon Kilgore as Reed Blankenship's Future Remains Uncertain | Broncos Release Linebacker Dre Greenlaw | Patriots Eye Tight End Isaiah Likely to Support Drake Maye | NFL Week 13: Trends, DVOA Analysis, and Fields' Benching | Leo Chenal Free Agency Outlook: Potential Roles and Team Fits | Titans Sign Former Chiefs CB Joshua Williams | Chargers Sign Cole Strange to Bolster Offensive Line | Eagles 7-Round NFL Mock Draft 2026: Reshaping the Roster | 2026 Free Agent Forecast: Patriots Focus on Offensive Line | Eagles Eye Jalon Kilgore as Reed Blankenship's Future Remains Uncertain | Broncos Release Linebacker Dre Greenlaw | Patriots Eye Tight End Isaiah Likely to Support Drake Maye
NFL / Analysis
NFL Week 13: Trends, DVOA Analysis, and Fields' Benching
As the NFL heads into Week 13, several unexpected trends are shaping the landscape. This includes historically poor defensive performances, surprising team records that defy underlying metrics, and notable quarterback controversies.
Key Insights
- The Cincinnati Bengals possess the worst defense through 11 games since 1978, according to DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Their struggles extend to both pass rush and run stop win rates.
- The New York Giants have the second-worst run defense through 12 games since 1978, allowing a league-high 6.0 yards per carry.
- Despite a 10-2 record, the New England Patriots' DVOA is the second-lowest for a team with that record since 1978, indicating their performance may be unsustainable due to an easy schedule and luck in close games.
- The Chicago Bears, with an 8-3 record, have the worst DVOA for a team with that record since 1978. Their success is potentially a mirage due to a weak schedule and being outscored by opponents overall.
- Justin Fields of the New York Jets expressed surprise at being benched, maintaining his belief that he is a starting-caliber quarterback.
In-Depth Analysis
The Bengals' defensive woes are highlighted by allowing the most points and yards per game in the league. Their struggles are consistent across all levels, despite not having a particularly difficult schedule. The Giants' inability to stop the run is costing them dearly, with opponents consistently breaking off long runs. The Patriots' overperformance is likely due to an easy schedule and good fortune in close games, while the Bears' similarly inflated record is undermined by poor underlying metrics and a negative point differential. Fields' benching reflects the Jets' dissatisfaction with their passing game, leaving his future with the team uncertain. These trends suggest potential regression for some teams and difficult decisions ahead for others.
FAQ
Why are the Patriots' underlying stats so low despite their record?
The Patriots have benefited from a remarkably easy schedule and have won several close games, leading to a record that doesn't align with their overall performance metrics.
What does Justin Fields' benching mean for his future?
Fields' future with the Jets is uncertain. The team may look to reset their quarterback position, leaving Fields' role as a backup or potential trade candidate in question.
Takeaways
- Question the legitimacy of teams with strong records but poor DVOA, as their success may not be sustainable.
- Monitor the Bengals and Giants' defensive performances to see if they can improve or if significant changes are needed.
- Keep an eye on the Jets' quarterback situation and whether Fields will get another opportunity to start.
- Understand that schedule strength and luck can significantly impact a team's win-loss record.
Discussion
Do you think these NFL trends will continue? Which of these teams are most likely to turn things around? Share this article with others who need to stay ahead of this trend!
Sources
Disclaimer
This article was compiled by Yanuki using publicly available data and trending information. The content may summarize or reference third-party sources that have not been independently verified. While we aim to provide timely and accurate insights, the information presented may be incomplete or outdated.
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