MLB Picks Today: Best Bets and Home Run Props for March 29

In-Depth Analysis

Today's MLB slate offers several betting angles according to expert analysis.

**Game Picks Analysis (Greg Peterson - VSiN):** * **Brewers @ Yankees (Under 8.5):** Nestor Cortes has a strong 3.21 ERA at Yankee Stadium, which plays pitcher-friendly outside the right-field porch. Max Fried adds to the strong pitching matchup. * **Angels @ White Sox (Under 8.5):** Both teams struggled offensively last season. Jose Soriano (Angels) had a solid 2024 (3.42 ERA), facing Jonathan Cannon (White Sox) who improved later in his rookie year. * **Twins @ Cardinals (Cardinals +110):** Erick Fedde (Cardinals) showed improved control in 2024 (3.32 ERA), while Joe Ryan (Twins) struggles on the road (4.14 career road ERA). The Cardinals bullpen ranked higher than the Twins' last season. * **Royals (-118) vs. Guardians:** Seth Lugo (Royals) offers better control (2.1 BB/9) and durability (6.26 IP/start) compared to Gavin Williams (Guardians, 3.8 BB/9, 4.75 IP/start). * **Astros (-122) vs. Mets:** Spencer Arrighetti (Astros) finished 2024 strong (3.08 ERA, 10.8 K/9 in final 14 appearances). Griffin Canning (Mets debut) struggled in 2024 (5.19 ERA) and now faces a low-strikeout Astros lineup. * **Cubs (+106) @ Diamondbacks:** Shota Imanaga (Cubs) boasts impressive stats (2.84 ERA, 1.6 BB/9). Brandon Pfaadt (D-backs) has been inconsistent, especially at home (5.56 career ERA in Arizona), backed by a lower-ranked bullpen.

**Home Run Props (Covers.com):** * **Mark Vientos (Mets, +430):** Targets Astros' Spencer Arrighetti, who allowed 21 HRs last season and gives up significant fly balls. Vientos hit 10 HRs vs. fly-ball pitchers in 2024. * **Kerry Carpenter (Tigers, +600):** Faces Dodgers' Roki Sasaki. Carpenter showed power against splitters from right-handers last year, a pitch Sasaki utilizes. * **Shea Langeliers (Athletics, +500):** Takes on Mariners' Bryce Miller, who had a high fly-ball rate (33%) and allowed 21 HRs last season. Langeliers hit well against splitters and sinkers, pitches Miller throws.

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FAQ

Takeaways

• **Analyze Pitching Matchups:** Look beyond ERA; consider pitcher splits (home/road), flyball vs. groundball rates, and specific pitch effectiveness when evaluating games or props.
• **Identify Value Lines:** Expert picks often highlight odds (+110, +106, +430, +600) where they perceive the payout is better than the implied probability.
• **Consider Player Props:** Specific player props, like home runs, can offer value if you identify favourable hitter vs. pitcher matchups (e.g., hitter excels against pitcher's primary pitch type or tendency to allow fly balls).

Discussion

Which of these picks do you agree or disagree with? Do you see other value bets on the board for March 29th? Let us know!

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Disclaimer

This article was compiled by Yanuki using publicly available data and trending information. The content may summarize or reference third-party sources that have not been independently verified. While we aim to provide timely and accurate insights, the information presented may be incomplete or outdated.

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