- **Q: Why are Alec Bohm's stats so low if he's hitting the ball hard?
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ARTICLE DETAIL
Luck be a Phillie (Or, You Might Be Wrong About Stott and Bohm) | Mikal Bridges Struggles with Inconsistency, Plagued by Foul Trouble | Nazar's PPG Wins It in Overtime: Blackhawks Beat Mammoth | Pacers-Clippers Trade: Mathurin and Zubac's Impact | Troy Wins Sun Belt Tournament, Earns NCAA Berth | RMU Men's Hockey Advances to AHA Semifinals After Tense Series | Oregon State Basketball: The End of the Wayne Tinkle Era | Mexico vs. USA: Intense Rivalry at the World Baseball Classic 2026 | Italy vs. Great Britain in 2026 World Baseball Classic: Espresso-Fueled Victory | Luck be a Phillie (Or, You Might Be Wrong About Stott and Bohm) | Mikal Bridges Struggles with Inconsistency, Plagued by Foul Trouble | Nazar's PPG Wins It in Overtime: Blackhawks Beat Mammoth | Pacers-Clippers Trade: Mathurin and Zubac's Impact | Troy Wins Sun Belt Tournament, Earns NCAA Berth | RMU Men's Hockey Advances to AHA Semifinals After Tense Series | Oregon State Basketball: The End of the Wayne Tinkle Era | Mexico vs. USA: Intense Rivalry at the World Baseball Classic 2026 | Italy vs. Great Britain in 2026 World Baseball Classic: Espresso-Fueled Victory
Sports / Baseball
Luck be a Phillie (Or, You Might Be Wrong About Stott and Bohm)
Philadelphia Phillies teammates Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott are experiencing vastly different starts to the 2025 season, but a closer look at the underlying statistics suggests their fortunes might be reversed. While Bohm struggles visibly,...
Key Insights
- **Alec Bohm's Early Slump:** Bohm has started the season poorly, with a batting line around .158/.172/.175 through mid-April.
- **Strong Underlying Numbers:** Despite the slump, Bohm exhibits career-high average exit velocity (92.9 mph) and hard-hit rates (52.4%), ranking well league-wide. His expected stats (xBA, xSLG, xwOBA) are significantly higher than his actual results, indicating bad luck (BABIP around .205).
- **Bryson Stott's Surface Success:** Stott posts a more respectable line (.250/.321/.375), seemingly avoiding major criticism.
- **Weak Underlying Metrics:** However, Stott ranks in the bottom percentiles for expected stats (xWOBA, xBA, xSLG), with low exit velocity, hard-hit rates, and a significantly decreased bat square-up percentage compared to previous years. His BABIP (.333) suggests good luck.
- **Why This Matters:** Bohm is a key right-handed bat in the Phillies lineup. His prolonged slump, dating back to the second half of 2024, is a major concern. Stott's performance may not be sustainable if his underlying metrics don't improve.
- **Historical Context:** Bohm faded in late 2024, was benched in the playoffs, and faced trade rumors, intensifying scrutiny on his current performance.
In-Depth Analysis
## [H2] Bohm's Bad Luck vs. Stott's Good Fortune
The contrast between Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott early in the 2025 season is stark when looking beyond traditional stats. Data from Statcast reveals Bohm has been one of the unluckiest hitters in MLB, while Stott has been among the luckiest.
Bohm's gap between his expected batting average (xBA) and actual average, and expected slugging (xSLG) and actual slugging, are nearly double the next unluckiest players cited in early reports. If his performance matched his quality of contact, his average would be closer to .260 and slugging over .400 – respectable numbers that would quell much criticism. He's hitting the ball hard (89th percentile exit velocity, 86th percentile hard-hit rate) but has little to show for it, exemplified by a low .205 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP).
Conversely, Stott's actual stats significantly outperform his expected numbers. He has one of the largest positive differences between actual and expected weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) in the league. His success comes despite poor contact quality metrics: low bat speed, low barrel frequency, and a dramatic drop in his ability to "square-up" the ball (from 87th percentile in 2024 to 11th percentile early in 2025). His high BABIP of .333 is unlikely to sustain without improvement in contact quality.
## [H2] What to Watch For Bohm himself acknowledges the frustration but attributes it largely to bad luck, stating, "I guess the game’s trying to teach me a lesson maybe... I know eventually everything sort of evens out." He remains confident his numbers will normalize closer to his career averages.
The Phillies rely on Bohm's production, particularly from the right side. His struggles, continuing from late 2024, put pressure on the team. While adjustments are always possible, the data suggests Bohm is hitting well without results, while Stott is getting results without hitting particularly well. Observers should monitor if Bohm's BABIP trends upward and if Stott can either improve his contact or maintain his fortunate run.
## [H2] Who This Affects Most - **Philadelphia Phillies:** Team performance hinges on key players like Bohm producing. - **Alec Bohm & Bryson Stott:** Their future roles and fan perception are influenced by these trends. - **Fantasy Baseball Managers:** Owners need to decide whether to trust Bohm's underlying metrics or Stott's current production.
FAQ
- **Q: Is Bryson Stott really playing that well?
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- **Q: What are expected stats (like xwOBA)?
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Takeaways
- Don't judge Bohm solely on his current batting average; his underlying contact metrics suggest improvement is likely.
- Be cautious about Stott's current production levels; his poor contact quality suggests potential regression unless he improves.
- Watch key indicators: Bohm's BABIP (expect it to rise) and Stott's xwOBA (expect it to align closer with his actual wOBA over time).
- Advanced stats provide deeper insight than traditional box scores alone.
Discussion
Are advanced stats a better indicator of future performance than traditional stats in this case? Do you think Bohm will bounce back and Stott will regress? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!
*Share this article with others who need to stay ahead of this trend!*
Sources
Source 1: Luck be a Phillie (Or, You Might Be Wrong About Stott and Bohm) target="_blank"
Source 2: Struggles of Phillies All-Star Third Baseman Emerging as Biggest Problem This Season (SI.com - Placeholder URL) target="_blank"
Source 3: Alec Bohm comments on slow start to 2025 (MLB.com - Placeholder URL) target="_blank"
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