MLB Home Run Prop Bets and Best Bets for May 23, 2025

In-Depth Analysis

Several players are being highlighted as potential home run hitters based on various factors, including matchups, historical performance, and ballpark conditions:

**CBS Sports' SportsLine:** - **Michael Busch (Cubs, +550):** Busch has seven home runs this season and an .876 OPS against right-handed pitchers. He faces Hunter Greene, who is returning from the injured list, giving hitters an advantage. - **Pete Alonso (Mets, +320):** Alonso has nine home runs this season despite a recent slump. He faces Clayton Kershaw, who has struggled with injuries. - **Cody Bellinger (Yankees, +340):** Bellinger has eight home runs, with three in his last five games. He faces Tanner Gordon in Coors Park, known to be batter friendly.

**FanDuel Research:** - **Jake Burger (Rangers, +350):** Against right-handers, Burger has a high flyball rate (42.0%) and hard-hit rate (44.0%). He faces Sean Burke, who ranks in the 16th percentile in barrel rate. - **Jorge Polanco (Mariners, +470):** Polanco has 10 home runs against right-handed pitching. He faces Ryan Gusto, who struggles with flyballs and hard-hit rate. - **Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks, +390):** Marte has a 1.111 OPS against lefties and faces Miles Mikolas, who has allowed a high flyball and hard-hit rate to lefties.

**VSiN's Adam Burke:** - **Cubs/Reds Under 8.5 (-112):** Matthew Boyd projects well against the Reds lineup. The Reds are 22nd in wOBA against southpaws. - **Dodgers 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+114):** Griffin Canning's high LOB% and ground ball rate may be unsustainable against the Dodgers' talented offense. - **Astros -125:** Emerson Hancock has struggled on the road and against righties. Ryan Gusto has good swing-and-miss upside against the Mariners.

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FAQ

Takeaways

• Consider the expert picks and model projections when making MLB home run prop bets.
• Research individual player matchups and ballpark factors to identify potential value picks.
• Shop around for the best lines at different sportsbooks.

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