What is causing the weak monsoon season in Arizona?
A strong and persistent trough over the West Coast is keeping Arizona under dry southwesterly winds.
Yanuki
ARTICLE DETAIL
Arizona Monsoon and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast: What to Expect | Phoenix Weather: Storms Followed by Potential Record Heat | Preparing for Snowmelt and Basement Flooding Risks | Metro Detroit Weather Outlook: Warm Start, Stormy Mid-Week, and Cooler Temperatures to Follow | Sault Ste. Marie Weather Forecast: March 2026 | Western Washington Braces for Heavy Snow and Rain | Tennessee Weather Rollercoaster: False Spring, Storms, and the Equinox | How to Prepare for Severe Weather in San Antonio | Strong Storms Forecasted for Cincinnati and Rochester | Arizona Monsoon and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast: What to Expect | Phoenix Weather: Storms Followed by Potential Record Heat | Preparing for Snowmelt and Basement Flooding Risks | Metro Detroit Weather Outlook: Warm Start, Stormy Mid-Week, and Cooler Temperatures to Follow | Sault Ste. Marie Weather Forecast: March 2026 | Western Washington Braces for Heavy Snow and Rain | Tennessee Weather Rollercoaster: False Spring, Storms, and the Equinox | How to Prepare for Severe Weather in San Antonio | Strong Storms Forecasted for Cincinnati and Rochester
Weather / Arizona Weather
Arizona Monsoon and Severe Thunderstorm Forecast: What to Expect
Arizona's monsoon season has been somewhat subdued this year, but changes are on the horizon. This article examines recent weather patterns and provides a forecast for severe thunderstorms across southeastern Arizona.
Key Insights
- A strong trough over the West Coast has kept Arizona under dry southwesterly winds, pushing monsoon moisture eastward.
- Fire season has returned across northern and western Arizona due to the lack of rain and drying fuels.
- Arizona Weather Force issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for eastern Pima County, Santa Cruz, and Cochise County on August 9, 2025.
- High instability is expected to bring strong storms with damaging winds (over 50 mph) and large hail to southeastern Arizona, particularly the Sierra Vista and Tucson areas.
- A ridge building in August is expected to bring a return to rain and thunderstorms after August 10th, lasting through mid-August.
In-Depth Analysis
The Arizona monsoon is a seasonal shift in wind patterns that brings increased moisture and thunderstorms to the state. This year, a persistent trough over the West Coast has disrupted the typical monsoon flow, leading to drier conditions in many areas. The US National Weather Service in Flagstaff notes that these conditions resemble late June, increasing the risk of wildfires.
However, Arizona Weather Force anticipates a change, forecasting a return to more typical monsoon conditions after August 10th. Their Severe Thunderstorm Watch highlights the potential for strong storms in southeastern Arizona, with possible dust storms and damaging winds. The forecast zones include Eastern Pima County, Santa Cruz, and Cochise County.
Extended Forecasts:
- **Prescott Valley:** Highs in the upper 90s, with a 10% chance of precipitation on Friday and 30% on Saturday.
- **Cottonwood:** Highs near 110, with a slight chance of precipitation on Friday and Saturday.
- **Sedona:** Highs in the low 100s, with a slight chance of precipitation on Friday and Saturday.
- **Flagstaff:** Highs in the upper 80s, with a 10-30% chance of precipitation throughout the week.
FAQ
Where are severe thunderstorms expected?
Southeastern Arizona, including Eastern Pima County, Santa Cruz, and Cochise County, is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
When is the monsoon expected to return?
A return to a more typical monsoon pattern is expected after August 10th and continue through mid-August.
Takeaways
- The Arizona monsoon has been delayed, leading to increased fire risk.
- Severe thunderstorms are possible in southeastern Arizona, bringing potential hazards.
- Monitor weather forecasts and be prepared for flash floods, dust storms, and damaging winds.
- The monsoon pattern is expected to return after August 10th, bringing increased rain and thunderstorms.
Discussion
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Sources
Disclaimer
This article was compiled by Yanuki using publicly available data and trending information. The content may summarize or reference third-party sources that have not been independently verified. While we aim to provide timely and accurate insights, the information presented may be incomplete or outdated.
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