Who will win the 2025 Grand National based on previous trends?

Weight Matters, But Less Than Before: While carrying over 11st is no longer the barrier it once was (Hedgehunter, Don’t Push It, I Am Maximus etc. won with 11st+), carrying the absolute top weight remains a huge ask. No horse wearing the number 1 cloth has won since Red Rum in 1974.

Experience Can Be Overrated: Surprisingly, Grand National debutants have a strong record. 23 of the last 29 winners were having their first run in the race. Defending the crown is rare; Tiger Roll (2019) was the first dual winner since Red Rum (1974).

Key Trial Races: Form in major staying handicaps like the Irish Grand National, Welsh Grand National, Paddy Power Chase (Leopardstown), Coral Gold Cup (Newbury), and the Bobbyjo Chase often proves significant.

Cross Country Link: The Cheltenham Festival's Cross Country Chase has become a notable pointer, with winners (Tiger Roll, Delta Work) and placed horses often running well at Aintree.

Changing Race Dynamics: The modern Grand National requires speed as well as stamina, and lightly raced chasers have performed well recently (Noble Yeats, I Am Maximus). Prep runs over hurdles to protect chase handicap marks are also a common tactic, especially for Irish-trained contenders.

Why this matters? Understanding these trends is crucial for navigating the complex form puzzle of the Grand National, helping punters identify horses with statistically favourable profiles and potentially find value beyond the favourites.

Intense Raffles: Last year's Irish Grand National winner fits many positive trends. He appears well-handicapped (receiving 12lb from Nick Rockett compared to their Bobbyjo Chase run) and this race has reportedly been his long-term target. He represents strong connections (Trainer Tom Gibney).

Iroko: Highly rated by Timeform, this unexposed chaser boasts strong Grade 1 novice form that has been boosted by horses he competed against (Inothewayurthinkin, Heart Wood). He remains open to improvement ('p' rating from Timeform) and shaped well at Aintree last year. Stamina is the main question mark, but he finishes his races strongly.

Perceval Legallois: Demolished the field in the competitive Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, suggesting his current handicap mark might not stop him. He backed that up with a hurdles win and looks like a potential stayer for this longer trip. Represents the Gold Cup-winning connections of Gavin Cromwell and JP McManus.

Kandoo Kid: A leading hope for the British contingent. He won the prestigious Coral Gold Cup at Newbury in November and previously ran well over these fences in the Topham Chase (suggesting the shorter trip was inadequate then). Warmed up with a satisfactory run over hurdles.

Stumptown: Won the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham impressively off the same mark he carries here. That race is a strong recent guide, and stamina is assured. Needs to prove he can replicate that form in this higher-class conventional chase. Also trained by Gavin Cromwell.

Hewick: A popular veteran with wins in the King George, American Grand National, and Galway Plate. He has been given a workable mark by the handicapper, showed well-being winning a hurdle race recently, and stamina is not an issue. Solid claims.

Vanillier: Finished second in the 2023 Grand National off this same handicap mark. Showed he retains ability when third in the Cheltenham Cross Country Chase (despite losing ground early). Blinkers and cross-country runs seem to have revitalised him.

Q: Does weight still matter in the Grand National?

A: Yes, though less than historically. Winners have carried over 11st recently, but carrying the absolute top weight (like I Am Maximus aims to) is extremely difficult and hasn't been done since Red Rum in 1974.

Q: Is previous Grand National experience important?

A: Not necessarily. Trends strongly favour horses making their Grand National debut (23 of the last 29 winners). Winning back-to-back like Tiger Roll is very rare.

Q: Which trial races are good pointers?

A: Victories or strong runs in major staying handicaps like the Irish National, Welsh National, Paddy Power Chase, Coral Gold Cup, and the Bobbyjo Chase are significant. The Cheltenham Cross Country race has also proven a good guide in recent years.

When assessing the field, look for horses matching key trends: often Grand National debutants, those with strong recent form in major staying handicaps, and potentially well-treated by the handicapper.

Consider unexposed chasers like Iroko who might have untapped potential for the unique demands of this race.

Classy veterans like Hewick or previous performers like Vanillier shouldn't be dismissed if they retain form and race off a competitive mark.

While I Am Maximus is a classy horse, the historical difficulty of winning with top weight makes his task formidable. Contenders like Intense Raffles, Iroko, and Perceval Legallois appear to have strong credentials based on recent analysis.

Racing Post: Who will win the 2025 Grand National based on previous trends?

Sky Sports Racing News (Kevin Blake analysis)

Sporting Life (Timeform analysis)