- **Q: What are Twig's odds for the Grand National?
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Horse Racing / Grand National
Twig and Ben Pauling: Grand National Underdog or Sleeper Pick?
Twig, trained by Ben Pauling, might not be the most talked-about horse heading into the 2025 Grand National at Aintree, but this contender possesses qualities that could make him a surprise package. Often overlooked in the betting markets,...
Key Insights
- **Humble Beginnings:** Twig started slowly, finding success in point-to-points before returning to Ben Pauling's yard and building a respectable record (7 wins, 6 seconds from 21 runs under rules, earning over £137,000).
- **Strategic Qualification:** Twig's campaign focused on hurdles to protect his handicap mark, securing a spot in the Grand National with a manageable weight of 10st 5lbs.
- **Proven Stamina & Jumping:** He finished second in the 2024 Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham, demonstrating staying power. Crucially, Twig has never fallen or unseated his jockey in his career.
- **Ground Preference:** Recent underwhelming form came on unsuitable soft ground; Twig prefers better conditions, potentially aligning well with Aintree if the ground suits.
- **Team Connection:** Experienced trainer Ben Pauling and jockey Beau Morgan, who knows Twig well, form a strong partnership.
- **Market Position:** Currently an outsider with odds around 50/1 to 66/1.
- **Why this matters:** Twig fits the profile of a potential Grand National surprise – a reliable jumper who stays well and carries a low weight. If conditions favour him, he could outperform his long odds.
In-Depth Analysis
### From Point-to-Points to Aintree's Grand Stage
Twig's journey to the Grand National is far from conventional. Initially struggling under rules, he honed his craft in the point-to-point sphere, winning five times before rejoining Ben Pauling in 2022. Since then, he's proven his ability, highlighted by a career-best win in the 2023 Summer Cup at Uttoxeter. His second-place finish in the prestigious Ultima Handicap Chase at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival further underlined his stamina over extended trips.
### The Pauling Plan
Trainer Ben Pauling, a former assistant to Nicky Henderson with Cheltenham Festival and Aintree wins on his CV, has carefully managed Twig's path to Aintree. By running him mainly over hurdles this season, Pauling protected Twig's chase handicap mark (146), ensuring qualification without accumulating extra weight. While recent runs on soft ground look disappointing on paper, they were likely part of this strategy and not representative of his ability on preferred better ground.
### Strengths and Challenges
Twig's key strengths are his proven stamina over three miles and his clean jumping record – essential attributes for the unique test of the Grand National fences. The established partnership with jockey Beau Morgan is another plus. However, the 2025 Grand National field is considered high-caliber, presenting a significant class challenge. Twig also needs to prove he can handle the extreme four-and-a-quarter-mile distance, further than he's run before. Ultimately, his success hinges on rediscovering his best form on suitable ground.
FAQ
- **Q: Has Twig run in the Grand National before?
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- **Q: Who trains Twig?
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- **Q: What weight will Twig carry?
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Takeaways
- Twig is a potential longshot bet who has demonstrated stamina and safe jumping.
- His chances likely improve significantly if the ground at Aintree is good or better.
- While recent form is a concern, it may be excused due to unsuitable ground conditions and strategic race planning.
- Consider him for each-way bets, acknowledging the high level of competition and the step up in distance.
Discussion
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Sources
Twig and Ben Pauling Head to the Grand National – Underdog or Sleeper Pick?
Twig Grand National Odds 2025: Ultima runner-up to go well at Aintree?
Disclaimer
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