JJ Wetherholt vs. Sal Stewart: The 2026 NL Rookie of the Year Race Heats Up
Published · Updated
Cited: Sports Illustrated, Yahoo Sports, Redleg Nation
TL;DR
JJ Wetherholt leads in advanced metrics and defense, while Sal Stewart dominates in home runs and RBIs. With nine games left, the NL Rookie of the Year race is too close to call.
Why now
The regular season is ending, and the award carries draft-pick implications for the Cardinals. Both rookies have compelling cases, making every remaining at-bat critical.
Agree / conflict
Advanced metrics (WAR, AXE, defense) favor Wetherholt; traditional stats (HR, RBI) favor Stewart. Voters must decide which philosophy matters more.
Takeaway
The winner may come down to the final week. Wetherholt's return from injury gives him a chance to reclaim momentum, but Stewart's historic power season is hard to ignore.
The 2026 NL Rookie of the Year race pits St. Louis Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt against Cincinnati Reds infielder Sal Stewart in a battle of contrasting strengths. Wetherholt, recently back from a late-August injury, leads in advanced metrics: 4.6 WAR, a 127.5 AXE rating, and elite defense (22 outs above average, third in MLB). Stewart counters with traditional power numbers: 31 home runs, a league-leading 107 RBIs, and a .270 average. He is part of a historic trio of rookies to hit 30 homers in the same season—a first in MLB history.
Betting markets now favor Stewart, but ESPN's Bradford Doolittle still lists Wetherholt as the front-runner by AXE. The Cardinals would earn a draft pick if Wetherholt wins, adding extra stakes. With nine games left, the award could hinge on Wetherholt's final performance and how voters weigh all-around value versus raw power. The race remains wide open.
FAQ
What is the AXE rating and why does it matter?
AXE is an advanced metric that combines bWAR, fWAR, win probability added, and championship probability added. It provides a holistic view of a player's value. Wetherholt leads the NL with a 127.5 AXE rating.
How does the Prospect Promotion Incentive affect the Cardinals?
If Wetherholt wins Rookie of the Year, the Cardinals receive a draft pick immediately after the first round. This incentive adds extra importance to the award for the team.
What are Sal Stewart's key statistics this season?
Stewart has hit .270 with 31 home runs, 107 RBIs, and an .816 OPS. He also stole 15 bases and was an All-Star.
Why do betting markets favor Stewart over Wetherholt?
Stewart's traditional power numbers (31 HR, 107 RBI) and consistent performance have captured public attention, while Wetherholt's second-half slump and injury have shifted odds.
How rare is it for three rookies to hit 30 home runs in the same season?
It has never happened before in MLB history. Stewart, Munetaka Murakami, and Kazuma Okamoto achieved the feat in 2026.
Sources
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